I still find it amusing how the Football Writer's Association gives out awards about a month before the season actually ends, or the Man of the Match (although usually a player of the home team) being announced 5 minutes before the start of added time. I know a month's extraordinary effort would probably not make a difference in the outcome, but can't they wait for it to actually end? As for the man of the match, what if a player does a Mané and scores a hattrick in a matter of minutes. That's just for pondering. A week to go before the end of the season (at this point of writing), most important deciders have been settled, only to see whether Hull or Newcastle gets relegated and a fight for the last Europa league spot. (This was written over the course of a few weeks).
It's the second season now Arsenal did not lose a big player, or rather we lack a player that a 'bigger' club actually wants. The voicemail of the Arsenal's CEO would probably go like this 'You have reached Ivan, please be informed we are sold out on good players'. This is also my acceptance that we are not a top 5 club in the world as much as I wish we were. Two English teams (I mean the two blue teams), two Spanish teams and a German team are ahead of us and that's the truth. The strain on our finances due to the Emirates Stadium looks like something we can worry less about these days, reportedly due to renewal of our shirt sponsors Emirates, our new kit sponsor Puma, Asia tours during the off season and not so proudly, our notoriously expensive match day tickets. That has allowed us to spend a massive £70million during summer transfer window plus Gabriel in January. We broke our transfer record during the previous season and this season we made Alexis our second most expensive buy.
My prediction of Chelsea winning the title wasn't surprising. My warning of Jose losing the plot again due to his outspokenness was spot on with his scathing attack on refereeing decisions, but his team held up very well at the end and never really allowed any team to encroach their 8 point margin for the run in. Chelsea bought title winning players and it mattered. An outstanding season from Hazard made the key difference in the title race. Defending champions Man City lost a lot of their x-factor this season especially at home. The lack of transfer window activity and the lost of form of some key stars like Kompany gave them some poor results. Nevertheless, the sheer quality from the prolific Aguero and evergreen Silva kept them close to the summit. Sophomore year for Pellegrini has taken a setback so they would be looking at a few new signings to get back on track.
Meanwhile, the 'new' Manchester United hit their targets of finishing for 4th. After a disappointing start to the season, the turnaround and tweaking of the squad by LVG made reaped rewards. The team with the highest average variation in player selection at least gave LVG a good clue of his best eleven. Their form in the middle of the season did give glimpses of the old United. United's huge spending in the summer has made the intended impact, leaving the Champions League proper a whisker away with one last hurdle in August. Liverpool, the closest contender last season, slumped to fifth. By summing up their unimpressive transfer window, under performing new players, lack of consistency and injury to Daniel Sturridge, they capped off an underwhelming finish, not the send off Stevie G was expecting. Suarez joining Barca and lifting to elusive Treble while Liverpool spending their fortune on half a dozen of average players, a season to forget for the Kop faithful.
Have we come closer this year? I think we have. Last year we were wiped out by March but this year we kept the pressure on Chelsea until April, although it wasn't that close at the end. When we were counting down on the last 8 games or so, there were opportunities for Chelsea to slip up. But like the games against Hull where they survived a fightback, at QPR where they scored late on and beating Man Utd despite allowing them to dominate the whole match, they persevered and were worthy winners. Had they dropped 2 points in those matches and we somehow managed to beat them, it would be a whole different story. And that's precisely the point, we screwed up badly early in the season and they never really did. I would rate our title challenge this year a 6.5/10 compared to the previous season of 6.0/10, mainly due to the fact we were for most periods the closest contenders. A 6.5 is an improvement but regaining the title we last won more than a decade ago is still some way off.
(At this point of writing Arsenal have won the FA Cup) In the previous seasons, I have rated our season based on different models.
2011-2012: Good, OK, Ugly.
2012-2013: What Went Wrong and What needs to Done.
2013-2014: Signs that we could have won it and where it was lost.
After giving it some thinking, I am going to pull one out of the Management textbook. Inspired by the BCG matrix, here's how it looks like.
This is how the model would rate our players this season
Stars - Top performers, outstanding players.
Cash Cow - Doing OK to justify their value. Expected performance.
Question Marks - Resources poured in but returns have been paltry, borderline performers, lack of play time.
Dogs - Poor. Sell them right away
Stars
Alexis Sanchez, Santi Cazorla, Hector Bellerin and Francis Coquelin
Alexis has been the outright winner of our best player of the season. Power, pace, energy, inspiration and goals, all the ingredients you need from a top player. He has been absolutely superb for most of the season. Believe it or not, his goal against Besiktas recouped a good portion of the cost we paid for him. His skills on the ball, venomous strikes and great pace, produced some magical football and stunning goals for us this year, not to mention his tracking back as well. One of the signings of the season. Santi has played another brilliant season for us. His control of the midfield, assists and possession has again been of the highest standards. Less goals this season but still a top performer.
Now for the surprises of the season, Hector Bellerin and Francis Coquelin. Hector for one, was not expecting much first team football, but due to Debuchy's prolonged absence, Jenkinson being loaned out and Chambers shifted to centre back to cover injuries, suddenly became a starter on numerous occasions. Still at a tender age of 19, but has already made great strides. His confidence, pace and attacking abilities has made him a standout fullback. Another one that slipped away from Catalunya and bound to make it big.
And lastly, Coquelin, a player we have seen for a few years but has been very mediocre. He can't attack, doesn't defend well but possession wise is alright. But what a story this is, 'banished' to Charlton and waiting for his contract to run down. Suddenly being recalled and the rest will go down in history as one of the most unexpected turnarounds. He has been magnificent in the middle and just what we have only dreamed for years, the elusive defensive midfielder. Coquelin's revival has been a massive coup for us this season and definitely made the team better.
Cash Cows
David Ospina, Nacho Monreal, Laurent Koscielny, Mesut Ozil, Aaron Ramsey, Olivier Giroud, Danny Welbeck
A great team does not need many players to be superstars but rather they need the whole team to be 'performing'. I believe these players have performed when they played and have been good value. Ospina was injured for half the season but when called upon when Szczesny was dropped, did pretty well in my opinion. A safe pair of hands has been an issue for a long time so I'm pretty glad we've got a solid one between the sticks.
Monreal too has stepped up his game this season, very quick to cover and good options he provides us going forward. With Gibbs having lots of injury problem, glad to see Monreal establish himself in the first team. As much as I think Koscielny is not good enough for our title ambitions, he's been very consistent these two seasons. The alertness in his play has improved tremendously and we finally can see some results from our investment. Ozil just made it into cash cow status because of his contributions in the second half of the season. He has worked hard to improve his physical aspect of the game. He can be absolutely sublime with his play but still needs more steel when it gets tough. We are hoping for more returns from our record breaking outlay.
Giroud was injured for a few months but when he played, has brought in the goals and not without mentioning his assists for the team. Ramsey has not done better than his fantastic renaissance last season but still a great player to have on the team. Welbeck's tireless displays and important goals have proven vital. He hasn't quite lived up to the 16mil we paid yet but creeps into this category by the finest of margins.
Question Marks
Wojciech Szczesny, Mathieu Debuchy, Kieran Gibbs, Calum Chambers, Per Mertesacker, Gabriel, Mathieu Flamini, Jack Wilshere, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Theo Walcott, Serge Gnabry, Joel Campbell
This is where is gets tough. Do these players deserve to stay an Arsenal player? Have we already seen the best of them and still can't be convinced? Will they improve? Are they having a bad spell?
I wouldn't write off Szczesny yet because he still has many good years ahead of him. I still look back at what happened to Fabianski. It took years for him to get there and by the time he got there he was on the last year of his contract. He is no Courtois or De Gea, but I think he deserves more time. I wasn't too ecstatic when we got Debuchy last season because we were paying good money for a 29 year old. His season has been hit by serious injuries so next season has to make up for lost time. Gibbs and Chambers still have a lot to learn, I would keep them as they have showed enough promise. Gabriel, Gnabry and Joel Campbell all get waivers as we haven't seen enough of them.
Our stand in captain Mertesacker has had a steep introduction to English football but he fought tooth and nail to battle the intensity and physicality of the game. Despite his efforts I do not see him as a long term solution if we have title ambitions. I think we have seen the best of Per and I'm sorry to say he won't be good enough. I think Flamini has underperformed this season. He has lacked pace and the physicality as a midfield enforcer. I don't see him playing more than a bench role in the future.
Now for the Three Lions. We've seen Jack Wilshere since he was 16 and 7 years later, have we seen him fulfill his potential? I don't think so. Very unfortunate to be missing through injury due to a nasty tackle this season and also on many occasions in the last few years. Jack is one of the toughest question marks for us and England. We know how amazing he can be, even when he returned for the last few games he was brilliant, also scoring one of the goals the season. His frequent off field issues, poor temperament and injury record however tips the scale against him. Is he a player we can depend on as a starter for the first eleven? I'm going with yes at this point.
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is a lot more straightforward. It's the frequent injuries he has encountered that has limited his presence for us, no issues other than that, a keeper for sure. Now the hardest tie breaker of the question marks, Theo Walcott. Another player with an injury record which has hampered his appearances by at 25% of his time here. Similar to Jack, I am not convinced he has improved vastly since his arrival in 2006. We've seen some brilliant football for Theo but I'm not sure enough of the last 8 years. His inconsistent form has divided opinion continuously over the last few years. When he was running down on his final year of his first contract, he was just amazing. Fast forward two years he's not been convincing. He's not a forward (despite his few successful stints upfront) and doesn't do enough as a winger. I've lacked the confidence in Theo for awhile but once in awhile he scores some important goals like the one in the FA Cup Final. This is so hard. I have to stand somewhere and I am going with letting him go as I don't think he has made the impact as much as we expected when he arrived.
Dogs
Abou Diaby, Lukas Podolski, Yaya Sanogo, Mikel Arteta, Tomas Rosicky
Abou Diaby, not the tall French enforcer as we hoped, awful injury record, definitely goes. Lukas although did play some good football for us, doesn't make the grade overall. Yaya Sanogo, not at the level we look for and I don't think we have space for him. People would disagree with me putting our Captain on this list, but with all appreciation for his service at the club and I don't see him being able to lead us to bigger things. Rosicky would at the end of day be classified as a failure signing. 8 years here but only glimpses of greatness, not enough for Arsenal's standards.
The verdict
Now that I've sorted out the fine details of our team, it's time to review what went right and wrong. Silverware is not something we get easily associated with in the last decade so retaining the FA Cup was a great achievement. The anguish we had to go through being empty handed for so long before this has been really tough, but we are definitely seeing brighter days ahead. I think our team is a "80% work in progress", probably the highest in the last five years. Of course it coincides with retaining our best players and finally spending the big bucks. For the positives, I think our midfield is one of the best in the country and with the emergence of Coquelin, has added a new dimension of tackling and intercepting, giving the other players more confidence of staying up. We are not short of big names, having players like Alexis, Ozil, Cazorla, Ramsey and Wilshere would surely make us worthy of a league title, right? I hope it's a matter of when rather than will.
Our attacking options are there and our defence is improving, so where is the remaining 20% which would 'perhaps' make us League Champions again?
5 ways to make up the 20%
1) One world class central defender and one striker
It's a longstanding problem. I am not sure whether Gabriel would do a good job next season. So if we are interested in winning the title, we need a top draw centre back even if it means spending £25million. Without Olivier Giroud, things can get really get awful. We've seen so many players attempt to play upfront themselves and let's not kid ourselves, they don't belong up there. If the league is what we want and even if we still go 4-5-1, we definitely need another out and out striker. No offence to Theo, Danny and Alexis, but your best position is not up front.
2) Ability to switch playing styles
By observation of Arsenal's playing style, passing our way to winning matches, although defines beautiful football, is painstaking, tedious and not the most effective. The way we play demands top fitness levels and concentration levels throughout. I've seen this many times, us playing so well in Europe and few days later looking terribly jaded in on a Saturday. Our playing style of football wears us out quickly by November when European football is in full swing and would certainly kill us by Christmas. We have done badly not because of form but rather the fatigue setting in.
Another part of our playing style will make Jose grin, the predictability of Arsenal. Let's face it, we have quite a known playing style, trying to control the midfield and dominate possession. From there 'hopefully' we translate possession into goals or none (where you would see us 'overplaying'). It's been the story for years and I try not to be convinced Wenger's philosophy is the biggest culprit of them all. Teams generally know how to beat Arsenal but lack the players to do it. That's when you see the bigger teams like Bayern, Barca or Chelsea, able to overcome us because they know how we play. It's no secret, stifle the Arsenal's midfield and we are all yours. We need versatility and we need the surprise factor. Arsene needs to start thinking outside the box.
3) Less injuries
By far one of things that traumatizes me in my life as a supporter. I remember most of them all too well. Robert Pires injured at Newcastle and was never the same player again, Dan Smith on Abou Diaby, Shawcross on Ramsey and Martin Taylor on Eduardo. Football is a physical game and injuries are all part oft the game but unfortunately it's been too often one of the reasons why we have not been better. Wilshere, Walcott, Chambo, Ozil and Giroud have all had spells on the sidelines this season. Had they played I am very sure our points tally would have improved. We can't avoid injury from tackles but we really could beef up is our training and treatment regime to reduce fitness related injuries and the duration of layoffs from injuries.
4) Upping to urgency
Another of my biggest frustrations of our team is our lack of urgency or the apparent lack of hunger. This would have to touch on the mental aspect of things. How often has it been when we are 1-0 up, we shift the gears down and let the other team play? Then we concede and start playing again. How often has it been when we only see the hunger in our play when we are counting down the minutes to the final whistle?. This has to stop immediately. We are not Chelsea, a long way to go actually, from being the team that's able to just sit back and protect their lead and doing it quite successfully. We seriously need to put some urgency in our game and kill off matches or else we can forget about being champions again.
5) Bringing back the fear factor
The Invincibles era would probably be Wenger's greatest achievement if he continues to do what he does today (at this point of writing). The key points of that historic season was quality all around the team and Highbury being a fortress. Today, we are not a team to fear, teams coming to the Emirates look for points and take the game to us. I mean Arsenal's passing is one of the best in the modern game but the goals to possession ratio is likely one of the lowest. Allowing Arsenal to pass the ball around is not dangerous if you cover well in the final third and that's precisely where we've failed on so many occasions. It's time to improve on our direct approach, put more shots on goal and focus on the game's result rather than trying to play within our style. Remove the emphasis on the beautiful football and start grinding out the 3 points like it matters.
Final words
Football is competitive, margins are small and so many teams look at the same trophy and imagine their names carved on it. It's a cruel game, teams go all out but there is only one winner. I think our team, despite going through a lost decade, has successfully sustained our position in Europe's elite through rigorous budgeting and visionary management. Football as a sport is still a business at the end of the day which means the business' finances also has to be kept in check. I don't think we are any closer to a £86m Bale, £60m Di Maria or a £60m+ Pogba, but there is plenty of room for improvement we can make by playing within our means. Let's see what the transfer window has in store for us. Have a wonderful summer, till then.
Thanks for reading
~deyao~
