31 August represents a very important deadline for football clubs, it is the last day for clubs to sign new players or sell. It would be 4 months of non-activity after that. The new season of the Premier League starts again in less than 2 weeks!
It was quite a wonderful winter break with the World Cup starting the night of the last day of exams. I've watched many many matches and I couldn't be more pleased. Although I expected Spain to be contenders but I never wanted them to win. One of the reason is Spain being made of almost entirely of Barcelona players whom are pursuit of Fabregas. One way to see it is Barcelona are a tremendous team and even a player like Cesc may not make the starting line up. But you could see the impact Cesc has the moment he comes on, he is one hell of a player. He is intelligent, quick and his vision is top draw. There are countless reasons Barca would want Cesc but Barca too got realities of their own, finances. They didn't build a stadium or get taken over, but yet that pile of debt is so huge. They had to borrow 120 mil to pay their wages. Well, it is not a cheap team to maintain. Most of them are World Cup winners and they had Ronaldinho for some time and his wages would have been very close to 200k a week.
Football is a sport for entertainment and it is also a business. We have seen over the years many clubs run into financial trouble like Leeds, Newcastle and most recently Portsmouth. When you have trouble with your finances, it affects the business too. If the club goes into administration, points get deducted and the club is forced to sell top players, the end result won't be a good one. Arsenal is one of the most talked about teams when it comes to winning vs finances. Arsenal are arguably the most well run club financially in the world. But in contrary they have won nothing in the past 5 years. The interesting fact is, although winning nothing, the club's financial health is still that good. Here's a few reasons why.
Reason #5 Arsenal have not been taken over
Many of the clubs being taken over very very huge in asset base base but when compared to their debt, it is not a pretty sight. Man Utd might have a asset base of nearly 1 bil, but having debts of 700m which has increased since the takeover in 2005 has certainly got the fans very mad. Imagine the financing cost involved.
This article illustrates the not very pleasant situation.
http://www.goal.com/en/news/9/england/2010/05/28/1947511/exclusive-manchester-united-spent-40m-refinancing-debt-following-
There's a very big reason why many fans and the Red Knights desperate in getting the Glazers out the club.
Many people are wondering why a change of owners is a bad thing. Well don't the names of the shareholders just change ? Normally that's what happens. But not in this one. What the Glazers have done is a leveraged buyout in finance terms. What they have done is the borrowed a very large sum to acquire the club and at the same time use the club's assets to secure the loan. How does it benefit them? They don't have much upfront cost. Won't they lose as well with the huge financing bill? Number one, how much can they lose if they put so little capital in club. Number two, if it takes 50 years to pay off the debt, it won't matter, the business pays off the debt itself. Who loses? The club loses overall because finance will be tight and players need to be sold over time to fund huge loses. The exact same problem has occurred at Liverpool and that situation is much worse. For Chelsea, the debt levels are also pretty high but the Roman injects money in every season, making things look rosier than it is.
Reason #4 Low wage rates
I shouldn't actually be using the the word "low" because the wages are still pretty high. In general, Arsenal do not pay exorbitant wages to anyone. Anything above 100k is extraordinary. I believe only Cesc commands that level at the moment. The lack of big names also contributes to Arsenal's lower wage bill. However in recent article I've seen, it is not significantly lower. But a million or two a year goes a long way.
Reason #3 Youth
The most controversial policy I have seen adopted. It has shown glimmers of what the future has in store for the club but that has been all. Youth hasn't brought the silverware. But it has kept Arsenal out of the overpriced transfer market.
Reason #2 Stadium Revenue
The Emirates Stadium has been a curse in terms of trophies but financially it has been a great investment. Matchday revenues has been at record levels with season tickets in shortage. Accommodating 50% more spectators than Highbury, a club like Arsenal would need it. But Wenger's role in consistently delivering Champion's League football has been the main reason Arsenal could afford it.
Reason #1 Buying Cheap & Selling
When it comes to value seeking, Arsenal are champions. They have bought many players at a very cheap price and turning them into world beaters. Nothing at Arsenal cost more than 16 mil which was paid for Arshavin. A season of buying in Real Madrid is probably equivalent to more than 5 years of transfers in Arsenal.
The only way you could ever make money is selling. Although it sucks seeing players leave the club, the amount of money Arsenal has made over the years is quite amazing. Henry, Vieira, Adebayor, Anelka, Toure and a few others easily made the club over 50 mil. You don't usually see anything like this anywhere else.
The Transfer Market so far.....
The most aggressive team by far this summer has been Man City. They were extremely close to making 4th place last season. The big names they have got are David Silva, Jerome Boateng, Yaya Toure and very likely Mario Balotelli. It's over 100m spent so far. Mancini has only one chance to achieve a top 4 position and his signings has drawn a lot of attention. Are they going to be serious contenders? In the attacking part of the game, they've got oversupply of talent and I can really see no reason for more transfers. But their problem last season has been the defence. Although their defence is made up of quality players, somehow it was one of their biggest downfalls. Only Boateng has come to the picture in terms of the back four, has Mancini done enough? I think he needs one more.
The Big 3 (although Spurs are in the top 4, they still haven't deserved to knock Liverpool out) has done a great deal of transfers. Man Utd only adding Chris Smalling and Javier Hernandez. Despite the loss of Ronaldo, they had quite a decent season. This probably prompted Fergie to continue with his current squad. Despite their age, Giggs and Scholes has been admirable and extremely influential in the team. They surely will play a big role again this season, but Fergie has to know it won't last. Nani and Valencia have stepped up last season and this has most likely satisfied the manager's line up.
Chelsea has been really quiet, only big name has been Benayoun. No offense, but I am not sure Benayoun is good enough for the team. I don't see him lasting more than a season. I am really sorry. Overall I don't think the champions need any more players and all they could do is keep up the good work. They are close on signing Ramires recently but again I am not sure to what extent this Chelsea team is getting much better.
Arsenal has freshened up their squad. Letting under-performing and mediocre players leave during the summer. Campbell, Silvestre, Gallas, Senderos and Eduardo all departing. They haven't done the job up to a certain standards and I had no problems seeing them leave. My concern would be on the defence. Only one signing after 4 exits. Wenger needs another 2 defenders at least, they only have 3 centrebacks now. Ater conceding 4 goals against Barca and 3 against Wigan, Wenger has to know he has a massive gap to fill. The addition of Chamakh rules out any potential strikers. The return of Aaron Ramsey and Jack Wilshere would also rule out any potential midfielders. Overall I am still not convinced we got "our" man to score the goals. I would like to see another striker come in. If RVP is sidelined, Bendtner leads the front and that is no way going to create enough goals. I am still not quite satisfied with the sort of firepower to do a lot of damage when attacking, oh well, I can only hope. Wenger has to sign at least 2 players or the fans would go another season suffering. Oh man...
Forecast
I always got lots of predictions wrong. As much as I didn't want Spain to win the World Cup, I gave a genuine prediction they would make it. It's always a tough job for anyone to predict football. So many views and only a few will get it right. I am quite confident the top 3 last season will have no problems staying in the top 3. Top 4 is going to be a four way playoff this season. It is more open than ever. Man City, Liverpool, Spurs and Aston Villa. It would be against the odds but the knocking on the 3rd place door would take place this season. My biased but hopeful prediction for the top 4.
1. Arsenal
2. Chelsea
3. Man Utd
4. Man City
Neutral prediction
1.Chelsea
2. Arsenal
3.Man Utd
4.Man City
Risks
There are a few risk the predictions would go really wrong. I am not buying myself any insurance going with the winners year after year may not be realistic.
Goal scoring machines - Rooney and Drogba were top scorers last season and there will be heavy reliance on them again this season. Rooney had a slightly painful end to last season and a woeful WC, can he charge it up again?. Berbatov has to step for Man Utd with more goals, plus Nani and Valencia must notch up double figures in the league itself. Anelka,Lampard and Malouda must also keep up the scoring.
Integration - Man City's integration is really important. They got a host of talent in the squad but can Mancini make them a team? The predictions are heavily relying on this.
The fitness of Torres - His fitness hasn't be good enough over the past year .I see him scoring when he plays but this could be a tough season with the lack of talent in the team.
I'll leave it here and we'll see what the new season will bring . Till the next time. Ta!
~deyao~
