Another observation of mine lately. I think it is pretty obvious but I didn't realise how important it really was. Sorry didn't mention, it is investing related. There are heaps of investments we can choose to undertake and it is unlikely to even find two people with the exact portfolios. I am not sure how I came across this but here was it goes.
I imagined this recently. Some random person who comes to me and say, what stocks should I buy? I think to myself. Should I give a few stocks I like immediately or what? There a lot of criticisms given to Rich Dad author Robert Kiyosaki, stating that he doesn't really tell people in his books what to actually do. This is true, I've read a few of his books and I don't see which stock to buy or which location should my real estate investment be. This has angered many people and thinks he is just a fraud.
For a New York bestseller for I think at least 4 years, do you actually think people will continue buying a book which is useless? Probably not. He can give answers without a doubt but he won't. He wants you to find the answers. And because everyone is different in wealth, background and even geograhic location, he shouldn't give answers because it may not work for everyone. Like him or hate him, he wants the world the be financially literate and that's his goal. Who cares if Rich Dad doesn't actually exist (only he knows that), do you care if Harry Potter actually did exist ?
So what would be my answer to that imaginary person ? This is the single most important question to anyone starting off investing. "WHAT ARE/IS YOUR FINANCIAL GOAL(S)?". If the answer is I want to be rich...then there would be the risk tolerance question and I will give some suggestions. A financial goal can be anything from" I want to reach a million dollars in net worth in 10 years", "I want to own a house fully paid by 5 years " to "I hope to retire by 45 ". How could a person possibly have a universal answer to each of these situations. The general answer of needing to do something extra is obvious, but what to actually do is different. Thats probably why I don't list a bunch of stocks to buy. It's because they won't match everyone's financial goals and risk tolerance. For people who are sitting on 5 million dollars and don't know what to do to make it last forever, you can't do the same thing as someone who is trying to get out of debt.
At any point of life, you need a financial goal just like an ordinary goal. And it behaves the same, it changes over time because things are different at different points of time. So make sure you have a financial goal and do what you can to achieve it. You will be surprised what you actually learn and achieve in the long run.
Finding your own answers is best education
~deyao~
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Diversification
I am sure when you come across investing, there is a quote not to "Put all your eggs in one basket". People are always encouraged to diversify to spread risk. There is nothing wrong about diversifying but at times some misconceptions and interpretations has put a different meaning to diversifying which makes it wrong. So here a bit of information to clear to confusion.
A "normal" portfolio normally consists of investments of different risk. The higher risk would usually be equities, medium risk to be real estate and precious metals, and the very low risk investments are the ones consisting of term deposits, bonds and treasury notes.
There is no ideal percentage we should allocate to high, medium or low risk investments. But we SHOULD have all. Over the long run, equities might give you the best returns, but its not sound to be holding too much of them as cash flow might be a problem.
Back to the main topic, diversifying. The lesson of the day is "DO NOT DIVERSIFY FOR THE SAKE OF DIVERSIFYING!!". I have come across people going into the stock market and trying to create a portfolio of companies from different industries. They buy companies from different industries to diversify. I have no right to say that it is wrong or less profitable. But I won't recommend people diversifying like this unless it is really sound to do so.
A quote from Buffett says " DO NOT DIVERSIFY". Does it put all your money into equity? Or does it mean buy only 1 stock? Okay, here is what it really means. He is not meaning absolutely don't diversify at all, he is trying to say don't try to diversify just because the rule of the thumb says so. Why?? "When you diversify, you will put money in average investments and leaving not enough money into the good investments".This ends up showing a mediocre return. Buffet owns a porfolio ranging from financials, insurance, energy to staples. He is diversifying isn't he? Yes he is, based on his diversified portfolio. So is that contradicting? NO. He diversifies based on his thorough analysis on companies he understands and believes will outperform the rest.
Having said that, had he diversified into technology in his early days like Microsoft, he would be making a much bigger return. But till today, he tells people he doesn't understand technology and still stands by it. I think its a pretty good example to follow.
I hope I have cleared some confusion about diversification. So the next time someone tells you to diversify your portfolio through some form of investment, please remember it isn't necessary going to be good or reduces your risk. It could just mean you own a different "type" of investment and thus giving you a diversified portfolio.
Diversify your portfolio the right way
~deyao~
A "normal" portfolio normally consists of investments of different risk. The higher risk would usually be equities, medium risk to be real estate and precious metals, and the very low risk investments are the ones consisting of term deposits, bonds and treasury notes.
There is no ideal percentage we should allocate to high, medium or low risk investments. But we SHOULD have all. Over the long run, equities might give you the best returns, but its not sound to be holding too much of them as cash flow might be a problem.
Back to the main topic, diversifying. The lesson of the day is "DO NOT DIVERSIFY FOR THE SAKE OF DIVERSIFYING!!". I have come across people going into the stock market and trying to create a portfolio of companies from different industries. They buy companies from different industries to diversify. I have no right to say that it is wrong or less profitable. But I won't recommend people diversifying like this unless it is really sound to do so.
A quote from Buffett says " DO NOT DIVERSIFY". Does it put all your money into equity? Or does it mean buy only 1 stock? Okay, here is what it really means. He is not meaning absolutely don't diversify at all, he is trying to say don't try to diversify just because the rule of the thumb says so. Why?? "When you diversify, you will put money in average investments and leaving not enough money into the good investments".This ends up showing a mediocre return. Buffet owns a porfolio ranging from financials, insurance, energy to staples. He is diversifying isn't he? Yes he is, based on his diversified portfolio. So is that contradicting? NO. He diversifies based on his thorough analysis on companies he understands and believes will outperform the rest.
Having said that, had he diversified into technology in his early days like Microsoft, he would be making a much bigger return. But till today, he tells people he doesn't understand technology and still stands by it. I think its a pretty good example to follow.
I hope I have cleared some confusion about diversification. So the next time someone tells you to diversify your portfolio through some form of investment, please remember it isn't necessary going to be good or reduces your risk. It could just mean you own a different "type" of investment and thus giving you a diversified portfolio.
Diversify your portfolio the right way
~deyao~
Monday, September 7, 2009
Investing is Not Risky, YOU ARE!
Firstly, I didn't really create the title myself. Robert Kiyosaki did have a quote that "Investments are not risky, it is the Investor that is risky". So that's how I got it. For those who didn't already know, his books kinda kick start the thinking in me and I thank him so much for it. And of course, Warren Buffet's quotes and techniques have also been great guidance to me. I have gained so much confidence because of them. Thank You Gurus!
In this post, I hope to help anyone who reads this to gain confidence in investing. Sorry I might be repeating some things I have written previously, but the truth is things are all inter-connected so its too easy to be talking about the same thing.
Robert made his books exciting by providing some very interesting examples to help people understand a situation and it is a brilliant way to describe some things that are hard to picture. I have an example today on why investing is not risky as people think. Nothing is risk-free in this world. The closest thing to risk free are government bonds, but history has shown even government can default. Here's the example.
Students are the investors and the exam is the stock market.
We have two students, one is the scholar (the smarter one) and the second is the average student . The scholar obviously studies a lot harder and smarter than the average student. Which of them runs the higher risk of failing the exam? Obviously the average student. Lesson of the day, do your homework and your risk is instantly lowered. The exam is the same for both students just like the stock market is the same for you and the entire world, but why are some investors just better than the others?? They do their homework.Another way to say this, if you studied for the exam thoroughly and understood very clearly all the topics, would you feel confident walking into the exam..I am sure you will. It's the same thing, if you did your homework in investing terms, there's where you get your confidence from.You know what is better than the others.
Experience. I hear people say don't go into the market because you lack experience. Very true, a less experienced investor might run a higher risk as they are unfamiliar with certain situations. But once you have done your homework, taking small steps into the market would be the best. You don't need a lot of money to start off so just have a reasonable amount and buy securities you fully understand. I am repeating again, you learn by playing!! The longer you get yourself involved, you will realise some mistakes which you can avoid making again and learn to watch some trends which will give you huge benefits. Later on, you can devise strategies and plans which you can try out and learn. You will be moving up the ladder in no time.
I know it may sound wrong to plan your retirement if you at your 20s. But have a thought, if you have another 30 years before retirement, thats not a lot time to save up. If you have $1 today, putting it in the bank at 3% compounded, you will have $2.43 in 30 years. In the middle of that 30 years comes family and bills to pay. And the true thing is without proper planning, you might be left with very little when you retire. If for 30 years, you return 140%, that is really not sufficient in todays terms. Also we look at the time value of money factor. This rule tells us a dollar today is different than a dollar in a years time because that dollar can be invested to earn interest. It means, YOUR MONEY IS MOST POWERFUL AT THIS PRESENT MOMENT. If you wait another month or year, its power depletes gradually.
An example, if a person challenges you to earn a return of 100%. Would it be easier to make to 100% in 5 years or 10 years? Definitely 10 years. If interest was 10% a year, the challenge would be too simple. The extra 5 years does make it easier ....doesn't it. If your investing lifespan is 30 years, please start now! 30 years becomes 29,28,27.....years very soon so please make use of these precious years. I use precious because time is probably the most important factor when you decide on investments. I hope everyone realises the power of time in investing. Waiting any longer.....now thats risky!!!
Have a good day. Thanks for reading.
~deyao~
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Mini update
I was suppose to have an update on life in Australia but I never really got started, but now since I have a study break I'll just put in a few paragraphs.
Firstly, in terms of the weather, it was really cold as first in July when it was at the peak of the winter, was really trying to adapt to the climate and found it really hard. But the weather got better gradually but there were days when you thought, "Hey, the weather is getting warm already", then the very next day comes to a very cold one. The strong winds sometimes just blows you so hard that you could feel a bit tired..lol. With proper clothing, the weather is alright. It's like free air-conditioning at times.
The people. In a much more developed country compared to back home, the people here are generally much better. They are definitely more friendly and polite. In general (meaning half of the time), you meet very nice people when you need help or assistance to something. The orientation week was very well planned, I would say it really gave the new students most of the important information to start off. Thumbs up to that. The mixed diversity of cultures here are also something that I've learned quite a lot about. People come from so many different countries and it is just quite unbelievable that you are at the place to see it all.
Uni. Quite a huge change this one. Although with one full year of tertiary study in the bag, the changes were still quite huge to adapt to. First time being enrolled in a real University, I actually feel quite proud. Although entry is not considered difficult, but being in the real Uni itself tells you that you have reached another level. Back home, Pre-U in one building, and degree at the next building. Here its a uni with so many different faculties that some I never heard off, from faculty of botany, to clean water something faculty, you get the feeling of a fully structured institution. Plus, UWA is really huge in area. By my estimation of walking and timing, it is approx. 1km by 400m. Relatively small compared to Curtin in WA but it's still freaking huge. Walking one end to another is not funny, it's almost 20mins on a normal walking speed. Some lectures are split to 2 sessions of 45 minutes and tutes are only 45 minutes per subject a week. This is a big difference compared to 2 full hours back home. You get in the tute, discuss the allocated questions (some beforehand), you try you best to participate and out you go. It's so quick I tell you. Goodbye to the 2 hour tutes back in TBS where there is abundant of time to fully go through most of the aspects of the topics and have off topic discussions. Oh ya, lectures are recorded and you get to watch the lectures at your own time. The audio is clear and everything on the screen is recorded too. So you feel quite safe sometimes when you actually don't feel like attending lectures on some days or have to study.
Uni lecturers and tutors. Hopefully things will be better for the lecturer part. 3 out of 4 of them are boring. They all are very knowledgeable and have certs ranging from Doctor, Assistant Professor to Professor. No doubts on them being very knowledgeable, but they lack the teaching skills to make things interesting. which really makes me drag my feet to lectures. The real situation is just pick up the few important points and study it at home, it works for now. Tutors are quite different. Some of them are postgraduate students and they look just like your other classmates that sit beside you. They are so damn young! I find all of them pretty good, such a good consolation. The funny thing is when you see them for the first time when they walk in and your brain signals you that "Oh, here comes another student". But this student takes the seat in front and is your tutor. Feels like your friend tutoring you..haha.
Accomodation. The place I stay is probably one of the best places to stay in Perth (at least in my view). Subi (short for Subiaco) is a suburb located beside the city. I have made a list of why this place is great.
1. Very close to the city, takes about a little more than 5 mins to city.
2. Direct bus to Uni, which is really great for me who takes it everyday. The buses are on time and they are affordable.
3. Supermarkets. The two largest supermarket chains Woolworths and Coles are walking distance which is so awesome. I love supermarkets here.
4.Banks. Subi has all the major banks here also within walking distance which makes things so convenient. 7 mins on foot and about 2 mins on car.
5.Train station. About 8 mins on foot, you get to the train station which can lead you to almost anywhere you want. Haven't been on one though.
6. Subi market. Wonderful place to get all the vegetables and fruits. It's like a one-stop place . Also has some eateries there.
7. Bunnings. It's one of the largest hardware retailers in Australia and its just beside the train station and Subi market. Any hardware or spare parts, probably has it all.
8.Subiaco Oval. Not quite a big plus to me but it looks so damn nice. This is the only stadium where National Australian Footie is played in WA. It also recently hosted South Africa against the Wallabies for rugby. When there's a game, the crowd is quite loud and it echoes around the houses nearby and can definitely hear it.
9.Restaurants. There's plenty of places to eat in Subi. Ranging from fast food to classy ones. Desserts are also everywhere. Host of choices here except for the Asian food.
10. Shopping. Not quite my thing, but there are so many apparel and clothing outlets for shopppers. It ranges from the Esprits to the D&Gs range. So for people on a tight budget like me, we just walk past them everyday. I would say there are about 30 clothing outlets nearby. City is a stone throw away so there's a lot to look at. We also have Harvey Norman ( home appliances) and Harbour Town (Place for apparels and some eateries) nearby.
11. Entertainment. A half stone throw away is Northbridge, the major entertainment precinct for Perth (Lifted from the newspaper,lol). Clubs, bars, restaurants, billiard centres are all there.
And of course, living with family makes things very different. It's almost like I didn't leave home.I guess being home-sick is not quite on the menu.
~deyao~
Firstly, in terms of the weather, it was really cold as first in July when it was at the peak of the winter, was really trying to adapt to the climate and found it really hard. But the weather got better gradually but there were days when you thought, "Hey, the weather is getting warm already", then the very next day comes to a very cold one. The strong winds sometimes just blows you so hard that you could feel a bit tired..lol. With proper clothing, the weather is alright. It's like free air-conditioning at times.
The people. In a much more developed country compared to back home, the people here are generally much better. They are definitely more friendly and polite. In general (meaning half of the time), you meet very nice people when you need help or assistance to something. The orientation week was very well planned, I would say it really gave the new students most of the important information to start off. Thumbs up to that. The mixed diversity of cultures here are also something that I've learned quite a lot about. People come from so many different countries and it is just quite unbelievable that you are at the place to see it all.
Uni. Quite a huge change this one. Although with one full year of tertiary study in the bag, the changes were still quite huge to adapt to. First time being enrolled in a real University, I actually feel quite proud. Although entry is not considered difficult, but being in the real Uni itself tells you that you have reached another level. Back home, Pre-U in one building, and degree at the next building. Here its a uni with so many different faculties that some I never heard off, from faculty of botany, to clean water something faculty, you get the feeling of a fully structured institution. Plus, UWA is really huge in area. By my estimation of walking and timing, it is approx. 1km by 400m. Relatively small compared to Curtin in WA but it's still freaking huge. Walking one end to another is not funny, it's almost 20mins on a normal walking speed. Some lectures are split to 2 sessions of 45 minutes and tutes are only 45 minutes per subject a week. This is a big difference compared to 2 full hours back home. You get in the tute, discuss the allocated questions (some beforehand), you try you best to participate and out you go. It's so quick I tell you. Goodbye to the 2 hour tutes back in TBS where there is abundant of time to fully go through most of the aspects of the topics and have off topic discussions. Oh ya, lectures are recorded and you get to watch the lectures at your own time. The audio is clear and everything on the screen is recorded too. So you feel quite safe sometimes when you actually don't feel like attending lectures on some days or have to study.
Uni lecturers and tutors. Hopefully things will be better for the lecturer part. 3 out of 4 of them are boring. They all are very knowledgeable and have certs ranging from Doctor, Assistant Professor to Professor. No doubts on them being very knowledgeable, but they lack the teaching skills to make things interesting. which really makes me drag my feet to lectures. The real situation is just pick up the few important points and study it at home, it works for now. Tutors are quite different. Some of them are postgraduate students and they look just like your other classmates that sit beside you. They are so damn young! I find all of them pretty good, such a good consolation. The funny thing is when you see them for the first time when they walk in and your brain signals you that "Oh, here comes another student". But this student takes the seat in front and is your tutor. Feels like your friend tutoring you..haha.
Accomodation. The place I stay is probably one of the best places to stay in Perth (at least in my view). Subi (short for Subiaco) is a suburb located beside the city. I have made a list of why this place is great.
1. Very close to the city, takes about a little more than 5 mins to city.
2. Direct bus to Uni, which is really great for me who takes it everyday. The buses are on time and they are affordable.
3. Supermarkets. The two largest supermarket chains Woolworths and Coles are walking distance which is so awesome. I love supermarkets here.
4.Banks. Subi has all the major banks here also within walking distance which makes things so convenient. 7 mins on foot and about 2 mins on car.
5.Train station. About 8 mins on foot, you get to the train station which can lead you to almost anywhere you want. Haven't been on one though.
6. Subi market. Wonderful place to get all the vegetables and fruits. It's like a one-stop place . Also has some eateries there.
7. Bunnings. It's one of the largest hardware retailers in Australia and its just beside the train station and Subi market. Any hardware or spare parts, probably has it all.
8.Subiaco Oval. Not quite a big plus to me but it looks so damn nice. This is the only stadium where National Australian Footie is played in WA. It also recently hosted South Africa against the Wallabies for rugby. When there's a game, the crowd is quite loud and it echoes around the houses nearby and can definitely hear it.
9.Restaurants. There's plenty of places to eat in Subi. Ranging from fast food to classy ones. Desserts are also everywhere. Host of choices here except for the Asian food.
10. Shopping. Not quite my thing, but there are so many apparel and clothing outlets for shopppers. It ranges from the Esprits to the D&Gs range. So for people on a tight budget like me, we just walk past them everyday. I would say there are about 30 clothing outlets nearby. City is a stone throw away so there's a lot to look at. We also have Harvey Norman ( home appliances) and Harbour Town (Place for apparels and some eateries) nearby.
11. Entertainment. A half stone throw away is Northbridge, the major entertainment precinct for Perth (Lifted from the newspaper,lol). Clubs, bars, restaurants, billiard centres are all there.
And of course, living with family makes things very different. It's almost like I didn't leave home.I guess being home-sick is not quite on the menu.
~deyao~
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Massive Squad?
I always had the believe in the Arsenal squad, season after season, and I actually still do. But it gets really nervous when you think you have the team and ending up empty handed for the past few seasons. Sometimes perhaps the mix or formula of the team is not right. Some say the team is too young, too weak physically and most recently short. If Vermaelen equals Toure, it means we have the exact same squad minus Adebayor. We were very far off in the League but were reasonably close for making the last four in the FA Cup and CL. We slipped up in the defining moments but it was a fair loss. This is worrying. The league is no longer Arsenal places a challenge, all the hopes are for fourth which gives a qualifying berth for the CL.
Arsene Wenger believes in the squad and has right to do so. I totally agree with the style of football he tries to put out, pace and power. No doubt he has been instilling the style of football for the past decade. However, he doesn't want to pay inflated prices for players and this has become a problem. Honestly, the team he build based on the financial sense is number 1 in the world. It's like spending one third the price in creating a team rated at 7/10. In terms of value its excellent, but in real life things are compared at absolute value. The CL doesnt give you a spot in the knockout stages for having a net spending of zero. Neither does the League give you extra points for a low wage structure.
What I am trying to say is, on absolute terms, I think Arsenal still lacks the finishing touch to the team, the last bit of quality you need to create greatness is lacking. The transfer market is inflated at the moment, but come on Arsene you sold Toure and Ade at inflated prices, so its actually still the same. Why leave 40mil in the bank? For me I would have got Karim Benzema at 30mil. Yes, people would criticise Arsene for breaking his rule of spending small. But this is the real world, you need to show some ambition. You need quality. If Adebayor costs the same price as Fernando Torres, the figure is damn hell inflated. 1 more player is possible in the transfer window according to the boss and it better be good and not Vieira.
On the positive side, I tried rationalising with Wenger's idea of "believing" in the team.
On the defence.keepers are OK. Defenders..Sagna, Vermaelen, Senderos, Gallas, Song, Silvestre, Djourou, Clichy, Gibbs, Traore. The numbers are good but Senderos and Silvestre not quite the understudy we need. That leaves only 3 reliable centre backs excluding song who plays holding midfield nowadays. Slight concern, but seems ok. 3 wonderful left backs is pretty exciting.
Midfield - Diaby, Fabregas, Rosicky, Nasri, Denilson, Ramsey, Wilshere, Arshavin, Eboue, Merida, Walcott. Looks quite impressive, but with injuries, things won't look that good. If we have a fit and in-form Rosicky and Arshavin on the flanks, it is almost a dream.We got the choice of Nasri and Walcott with emergency backups of Merida and Wilshere.Ok, the tough part, without Fabregas, we are very likely to be in trouble. This is the gem we need whole season long. Pray that he is fine. For the defensive part, alarm bells. Denilson, I think it is fair to say he is not natural for the position, Diaby is too offensive and only Song could be the only hope. 1 player needed just to fill up the last spot.
Forward - Van Persie is not going to get 20 goals a season and he is the top striker so I am slightly worried abt the goals. I am praying very hard for Eduardo and Bendtner to step up this season. They got just too much potential waiting to be unleashed and I am screaming for them to finally show what they are capable of. For Vela, not much hope yet, I will give him another season to fit in. Striker or not, Walcott is another player I am just dying to see perform. Joined 3.5 years ago and still not quite up there. This has got to be the time now.
And lastly, Arsene Wenger. The man behind all of this. For his commitment to the club and incredible belief in the group of players and style of football, I just hope he gets rewarded. For the sake of the Gooners who have poured their hearts out to support the club, I think it is about time the team delivered.
~deyao~
Arsene Wenger believes in the squad and has right to do so. I totally agree with the style of football he tries to put out, pace and power. No doubt he has been instilling the style of football for the past decade. However, he doesn't want to pay inflated prices for players and this has become a problem. Honestly, the team he build based on the financial sense is number 1 in the world. It's like spending one third the price in creating a team rated at 7/10. In terms of value its excellent, but in real life things are compared at absolute value. The CL doesnt give you a spot in the knockout stages for having a net spending of zero. Neither does the League give you extra points for a low wage structure.
What I am trying to say is, on absolute terms, I think Arsenal still lacks the finishing touch to the team, the last bit of quality you need to create greatness is lacking. The transfer market is inflated at the moment, but come on Arsene you sold Toure and Ade at inflated prices, so its actually still the same. Why leave 40mil in the bank? For me I would have got Karim Benzema at 30mil. Yes, people would criticise Arsene for breaking his rule of spending small. But this is the real world, you need to show some ambition. You need quality. If Adebayor costs the same price as Fernando Torres, the figure is damn hell inflated. 1 more player is possible in the transfer window according to the boss and it better be good and not Vieira.
On the positive side, I tried rationalising with Wenger's idea of "believing" in the team.
On the defence.keepers are OK. Defenders..Sagna, Vermaelen, Senderos, Gallas, Song, Silvestre, Djourou, Clichy, Gibbs, Traore. The numbers are good but Senderos and Silvestre not quite the understudy we need. That leaves only 3 reliable centre backs excluding song who plays holding midfield nowadays. Slight concern, but seems ok. 3 wonderful left backs is pretty exciting.
Midfield - Diaby, Fabregas, Rosicky, Nasri, Denilson, Ramsey, Wilshere, Arshavin, Eboue, Merida, Walcott. Looks quite impressive, but with injuries, things won't look that good. If we have a fit and in-form Rosicky and Arshavin on the flanks, it is almost a dream.We got the choice of Nasri and Walcott with emergency backups of Merida and Wilshere.Ok, the tough part, without Fabregas, we are very likely to be in trouble. This is the gem we need whole season long. Pray that he is fine. For the defensive part, alarm bells. Denilson, I think it is fair to say he is not natural for the position, Diaby is too offensive and only Song could be the only hope. 1 player needed just to fill up the last spot.
Forward - Van Persie is not going to get 20 goals a season and he is the top striker so I am slightly worried abt the goals. I am praying very hard for Eduardo and Bendtner to step up this season. They got just too much potential waiting to be unleashed and I am screaming for them to finally show what they are capable of. For Vela, not much hope yet, I will give him another season to fit in. Striker or not, Walcott is another player I am just dying to see perform. Joined 3.5 years ago and still not quite up there. This has got to be the time now.
And lastly, Arsene Wenger. The man behind all of this. For his commitment to the club and incredible belief in the group of players and style of football, I just hope he gets rewarded. For the sake of the Gooners who have poured their hearts out to support the club, I think it is about time the team delivered.
~deyao~
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Fantasy Premier League
Fantasy starts next week, please join my league. League Code is 327235-96836.
~deyao~
Saturday, August 1, 2009
The Arsenal Crisis Q & A
I use the word crisis because it really is at the moment. Pretty nothing much is rosy for the team. No trophies, no big signings, players leaving...The glory days are all forgotten and being empty-handed feels somehow normal at the moment. Can you believe Arsenal are actually competing for the fourth spot. It is a pretty big slump at the moment and today's Q and A will be about the big issues surrounding Arsenal.
Q: First Adebayor, now Kolo Toure, really proving to be a selling club?
A: No club in this world really does this except Arsenal, I think I mentioned this probably 1 year ago. But it is really strange Arsenal seem like they are offloading the big players every season. We saw Hleb and Flamini wave goodbye last season and now the number 1 striker and the best defender in the club, I got no idea how is this happening. The players that has left the club over the last few seasons will amaze anyone.
Q:Vermaelen is the only signing this season, is it sufficient for the club?
A: In terms of number of players in the team, we are not really short. But in terms of quality we are really quite short on numbers. We have the players in the positions but I feel quite a few of them doesn't have what it takes. A player like Bendtner or Walcott. They have proven quality but the consistency level is actually very low. We need signings desperately.
Q: Arsenal hasn't really been linked with any big names, only a few and the boss again doesn't seem interested in spending. What are your thoughts?
A:I am obviously very disappointed we don't look close to signing anyone. I really see the lack in quality in the team and the names mentioned are not really helping the cause. I screamed for a defensive midfielder last season but the boss decided Denilson could do the job. He did alright in some games but he didn't look comfortable in the position. We just can't continue with Denilson or Song this season in the middle. We were linked with Melo a month ago I saw some hope for the elusive defensive midfielder but I was denied. We have been linked with Huntelaar, Hangeland,Vieira and Chamakh. Huntelaar is overrated, Hangeland is Europe cup-tied, Vieira is way past his prime and Chamakh is just another baby sprout. I am certainly feeling very down by the players we are linked with.
Q: Who would you like to see then?
A: There was a hint of Benzema and I don't see why we could not afford him. But the thing was he was only interested in Real and Man Utd will out-bid us anyway with the Ronaldo cash. A defensive midfielder is very urgent, I don't see Flamini making a return but I really like him. A real goal scorer would be good like David Villa. I also admire David Silva which can provide a lot of creativity on the flanks. We seriously need some enforcements in midfield and the boss really needs to work faster.
Q: The Eboue situation and Fiorentina?
A: In short, just let him go. For 8mil pounds? I thought it was a joke initially,he is really not worth that much. Why on earth is any team interested in him. I will even take 5mil.He has lost all the shine he had when he arrived. He is no longer that player who made great runs down the right wing and putting a good ball in the box.
Q: Does Senderos have a future at Arsenal?
A: He was certainly one of the biggest upcoming players when we signed him at the age of 17. But he never lived up to expectations and he certainly isn't good enough at the club. Even as an understudy he probably lacks it. I don't think he will stay.
Q: Should there be high hopes on Rosicky this season?
A: He has an injury nightmare since joining. He was injured the whole of last season. He is like out for nearly 2 years! I have missed Tomas quite a bit. He is so creative and has a sweet strike on the ball. He creates a lot for the team which is what we really need right now. He is one of the best in the game in his good matches. I am looking forward for a huge contribution from him.
Q:Are young players like Vela, Ramsey, Wilshere going to make their mark this season?
A: Vela probably has the best chance among them three. Ramsey still needs time, he is not close to making big impacts yet. Wilshere is only 17 so he will probably feature more in cup games. Armand Traore is back too which gives a perfect backup to Clichy. Traore can play midfield and swings pretty good crosses too so I hope he doesn't make any loan move. Gibbs should be quite influential too.
Q: Biggest players to the team this coming season?
A: Fabregas, Van Persie, Nasri , Arshavin will be the big four this season. They are all brilliant but they must find ways to play consistently and avoid those bloody injuries. Nasri is out for the first few games, so we should see Rosicky playing in the first team. The midfield department really lacks depth. With Eboue departing, we need at least 2 new names. I am just dying for a big player to come to the club, someone like Wesley Sneijder.
Q: Is Arsene Wenger bulletproof?
A: I think this season is probably a defining moment. He has been given quite a lot of time to prove the critics wrong. The team has come close to doing big things but has always stumbled at the wrong time. But this year amounts to 5th season trying to capture a trophy and I feel he has to do it regardless of any reason. Things are possible if he brings in big players and take chances on big transfers. This could be his last throw of the dice on proving his strategy and beliefs.
Q: Can he be ousted by the club?
A: Why not. I am not saying they will but if we don't make top 4 then it becomes highly possible.However I think it is only fair for Arsene to quit as opposed to being sacked for his contributions to the club. He has done very big things very the club but there comes a moment when things do not work as before. I still believe in him but the patience of the fans are running thin.
Q: Arsenal haven't been able to compete financially with other clubs due to huge stadium debt and some other problems with the Highbury developments , do you think a rights issue as proposed by Usmanov is a viable option?
A: Arsenal are the only club in the top four or even top 7 to have actually built a stadium from scartch. AND, the big AND is that Arsenal does not have access new funds from a takeover. In the term of 15 years, Arsenal probably could be financially more well-off then the other teams as Arsenal generate their funds internally. The Highbury development has suffered lack of sales most likely because of the recession and falling real estate prices but that has little to do with the football. A rights issue proposed by Usmanov actually sounds like a possible move which can provide some injections to the club. Ownership is not diluted and funds can be provided for Arsene's transfers. Yes, the shareholders has to come up with the money but if the extra 50mil actually helps, I don't see why not.
Q: Last question, a prediction of the Arsenal's fate this season as compared to the top four.
A: We could see the FA Cup at most I feel. Champions League last four is possible and 3rd place for the League. I think my predictions this time are more conservative so Arsenal proof me wrong! Man Utd might have a very tough season ahead and Rooney is the key driver next season. Losing 2 big players is probably enough to set them aside this season. Chelsea and Liverpool will occupy the top 2 spots and they could also do well in Europe.
Friday, July 24, 2009
A quick recovery?
Its the one of the hardest questions to answer at the moment for the economy. Some are predicting things are set for another tumble while the others are quite optimistic. Some big corporations in the past week have posted handsome profits and this has caused people to believe things are going to get even better. If you weren't observing, the rally since March 2009 till today is quite unbelievable, the most daring people in this period would be really smiling to the bank, returns are at least 50% since. The problem is whether this rally could really sustain? From what I have read, people are a little impatient at the moment and anything positive are driving values out of its fundamentals. The White House had a forecast unemployment could settle at 8% this year but it is already 9.5% and is almost heading to 10%.I am not sure how they also forecast a 4% growth under these conditions where contractions are still happening. Probably they were trying drive some optimism into the people for voting them into the White House.
There has been many circumstances where things have taken a few checks along the way. Crude Oil rallied all the way to over $73/bbl recently driven by demand by China. The speculators outdid themselves and a week later when inventory eventually piled up, crude dipped all the way to $59/bbl. Volatility at the moment is probably at its highest. People want the recession to be over now and this is a problem. There also people writing that the rally at the moment is also due the massive stimulus by governments around the world and they are worried things might dry up soon if the fundamentals are not there. The positive news, things will eventually recover gradually, it always has and should continue. The big brother of the world (US) is still a major force in determining the fate of the rest of the world. Obama really needs to step up and reform the healthcare, social security, war, minimise a mind-boggling deficit, restore confidence in the dollar and prevent its treasury bill holders from getting nervous. Those are just parts of the problem right now, he also has to deal with the declining confidence of the people. Polls declined again today. So a quick recovery, probably not yet.
But people should still be rational and remember this is probably the BEST opportunity you could ever have. The opportunities are still there for the taking so be on your toes at all times. Be patient and update yourselves. Probably not once in a lifetime but you really don't want to miss it. There's no secret that equities will outshine any other investment in any condition over the long run so keep tabs on it if possible. I have a friend who had a quote, "Any day is a good time to invest, there are just times when it is better". Guess when's the best time?...NOW!!! Last tip, be calm no matter what and only buy things you understand very thoroughly. There's really no secret.
Wanna wish my bro Loon Hung a very Happy Birthday today and hope it would a nice birthday with his girlfriend. On another note, another year has gone by without Dad so things are always bittersweet on this day. Some days seem to have many events in one. Anyway, everyone have a good day!!
~deyao~
Update on Australia soon..
There has been many circumstances where things have taken a few checks along the way. Crude Oil rallied all the way to over $73/bbl recently driven by demand by China. The speculators outdid themselves and a week later when inventory eventually piled up, crude dipped all the way to $59/bbl. Volatility at the moment is probably at its highest. People want the recession to be over now and this is a problem. There also people writing that the rally at the moment is also due the massive stimulus by governments around the world and they are worried things might dry up soon if the fundamentals are not there. The positive news, things will eventually recover gradually, it always has and should continue. The big brother of the world (US) is still a major force in determining the fate of the rest of the world. Obama really needs to step up and reform the healthcare, social security, war, minimise a mind-boggling deficit, restore confidence in the dollar and prevent its treasury bill holders from getting nervous. Those are just parts of the problem right now, he also has to deal with the declining confidence of the people. Polls declined again today. So a quick recovery, probably not yet.
But people should still be rational and remember this is probably the BEST opportunity you could ever have. The opportunities are still there for the taking so be on your toes at all times. Be patient and update yourselves. Probably not once in a lifetime but you really don't want to miss it. There's no secret that equities will outshine any other investment in any condition over the long run so keep tabs on it if possible. I have a friend who had a quote, "Any day is a good time to invest, there are just times when it is better". Guess when's the best time?...NOW!!! Last tip, be calm no matter what and only buy things you understand very thoroughly. There's really no secret.
Wanna wish my bro Loon Hung a very Happy Birthday today and hope it would a nice birthday with his girlfriend. On another note, another year has gone by without Dad so things are always bittersweet on this day. Some days seem to have many events in one. Anyway, everyone have a good day!!
~deyao~
Update on Australia soon..
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