Cash Flood

I finally found a bit of time to write again, something I really enjoy doing but so restricted by the numerous priorities in life. One principle I am still trying to instil is "no excuses", which makes sense for me to continue doing something I enjoy. It just takes a spur of the moment to get things started.

It's been quite awhile, February actually, since I last wrote anything about the economy or investing. It's been over a year back in Malaysia, about 1.5 years since completing my degree. My journey in Malaysia has just restarted in full swing. There is something about this country where I always have the vision it could overcome all the difficulties and barriers, becoming a strong and safe country. The country has talent, resources and is well positioned to achieve anything. Changes are being made right at this moment, to reinvent and restructure the entire country. Malaysians hate it when being compared to Singapore, citing the country is much smaller and easier to manage. Those people need to break out of this excuse or we will continue to remain behind. The difference between the two is not the oil and gas fields, rubber trees, oil palm trees or population, it's the people. Any country can go forward if they have the right people in place. Here are a few areas the country needs to improve if there is any hope for the future.

Education is by far the most area for any country to go forward. The standard of education Malaysia is relatively low and this is hampering the progress and productivity of this country significantly. If there is one thing we can learn from the developed countries we are trying to become, it's having an educated population. This country needs more contribution from the locals, but it's quite evident a lot of talent have left for abroad, causing the quality of employment market to fall. We need big changes in this country and it has to start now.

Malaysia has come so far since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, with a strong financial system with good ties with the world. It's quite safe to say Malaysia is 'globalised' in terms of trade and tourism, we are a well known country. GDP is growing at a steadily above 5% , foreign investment has increased and the government initiatives to transform Malaysia into a high income economy looks very encouraging. Despite this, the people in Malaysia need to look beyond the borders of the country to truly understand how to develop this country.

Before Malaysia declares itself a developed country in the future, there are many critical issues that need to be addressed. Like I mentioned above, the standard and coverage of education needs a lot of improvement. The standard of curriculum in schools have dropped so much since many years ago. Malaysia's once admirable Universiti Malaya has lost its prestige as a top university. Tertiary students are flocking to foreign based institutions in great numbers. Primary and secondary school education needs to be looked into seriously, the quality of of SPM holders have dropped tremendously and would definitely lose out in the international scene. We need to benchmark the level of our education very closely against international standards to increase the value of human capital in the country. The recent report on unemployed graduates is a flashing indicator on the severity of the decline in quality of graduates in the country. 

The current situation in the country is not favourable, we actually lack the resources to educate the population. The two key important subjects of Mathematics and English are not up an acceptable level and this is slowing down the development on of the country. It's absolutely critical more attention is given to address this problem or vision 2020 will continue to remain a dream. Reverting teaching in Mathematics and Science to Bahasa Malaysia is a disastrous policy, taking a few steps backwards from where we currently are. Bahasa Malaysia would be a key language for this country in years to come, but mastering this language alone would leave us trailing behind in terms of an international language. The Malaysia Education Blueprint launched this year has made big plans to improve the education system, I really hope there is enough commitment to push this through.

Going international is something all entrepreneurs and businesspeople need to think about all the time. I read an article a few years back highlighting the lack of well known Malaysian names or brands in the international scene. With the exception of the two airlines and a few companies like Genting, Sime Darby and Petronas, Malaysian companies are still very much domestic based. A good example is CIMB Group. It was a Malaysia investment bank, but it has now transformed itself to an ASEAN universal bank. It's simple mathematics, Malaysia has a population of 28 million, ASEAN has 600 million. Looking beyond the borders can be very rewarding. Despite being Asia Pacific's largest investment bank, CIMB Group is not known in Australia and was recently ridiculed by the press when bidding for RBS' assets. It takes extraordinary effort and intelligence to bring companies overseas. Malaysians need to grow beyond being a Jagguh Kampung (national champion), we need to go global.

When the head of IMF Christine Lagarde visited Malaysia recently, she pointed out the three areas the country needs to focus on. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Debt to GDP ratio and inequality.Malaysia's inequality of wealth stems from the gap between the educated and the less well educated (academically and financially), again reaffirming the need to improve the coverage of education to the entire population. The problem is getting deeper by the day as there is a huge proportion of the population is snot getting sufficient level of education to have enough value in the employment market. Inequality CANNOT be solved by distributions by the government. Recently, the government has given a lot of funding such as the 1M RM 500 vouchers and payment of bonuses to civil servants to supposedly each the burden of the rakyat. Giving money to people will not teach them anything, in fact it will make them poorer as most of them will fail to understand the value of money and continue to depend on the government. The priority now is to teach Malaysians HOW to fish, not giving them fish. To develop human capital in this country, education whether formal or informal is the only way. We need to grow more SMEs and encourage more entrepreneurs by boosting investment in this segment as well helping the existing businesses to get to the next level. Quoted from Lagarde “These inequalities must be on the radar of the authorities now because when a country develops very fast, as it would be for Malaysia in the next eight years, you don’t want to leave people behind".

The inequality in this country also stems from the increase in housing prices. Key economic areas in the country has seen huge surges in prices of properties, making it unaffordable for the middle class and below. Housing prices started to surge after 2009 and it's not a coincidence it's just after the start of the global financial crisis, where money is flooding the market. There's a lot of money in the market, why? Because the government is trying to keep the economy afloat. It's is helping but the middle class is getting destroyed. The wealth transfer in this country is pretty severe, the concentration of the upper class is increasing and this is usually bad for any country. It can lead to economic and social unrest. The people who own the majority of the assets in the country is quite concentrated and this is an ongoing problem . The government can distribute as much money it want, but at the end of the day, money is eventually spent and paid to the owners of the assets who provide the goods and services. And yes, the owners are usually the rich people.

In the US, the single largest cost to the government in terms of tax revenues are tax deductions that are property related. When I read about this, it drew me immediately to Robert Kiyosaki's principle of understanding debt and taxes. It would not be surprising if this is the case in Malaysia as well. The fact is the very people who understand and use debt and taxes to their advantage are the wealthier people today, and it is the 'game' for the financially educated. Debt essentially increases returns for investors as having 'good debt' creates value. The use of debt increases the liquidity in the market and this eventually finds its place in properties and pushes prices higher. If that isn't enough, the reduction of taxes through property related deductions transfer even more wealth to investors. On one side, money is flowing to owners of property from the public through rental income and rising property prices and the other side, money is flowing in from the government through tax deductions. The wealth transfer is enormous, something needs to be done by the government.

Drawing similarities again to the US situation of the current 'fiscal cliff', Malaysia cannot continue increasing the debt levels, currently limited by a ceiling of 55%. Although a breach of the 55% level wouldn't be a catastrophe for the country, it needs to be adhered to or else we might be ending up like some Eurozone countries with Debt to GDP hovering about 100% or much more (Greece: 175%). Like Lagarde mentioned, controlling debt is one of the most important areas. She cites Malaysia's debt as reasonably high. The government may have shown the people money is being spent on transformation programmes but how well the money is being spent or allocated would continue to raise questions. Transparency is this country is deliberately not discussed here as it would a whole other issue.

There is no short of issues in this countries being discussed every day, especially with the GE coming up. There is also no short of 'stories' on certain negative things that have happened in this country in the past. Any discussion on Malaysia politics today would either end up as a joke or anger. For people who are angry with what is going, thank you for caring for this country. But please do yourself and the rest of the country a favour by making changes starting from yourself. For people who have given up on this country for whatever reason, no one will blame you, but still do your part for this country. Thank you for reading.

'I need to change before things start to change' 

The photo on top is an incredible place called Banjaran Hotpsrings in Perak which I found out through a UK show when I was in Australia. How ironic.


~deyao~

Music Inspiration: Marié Digby

I have always had the liking of good music and good artists. But most of it was listening and singing. Nothing more than crazy screaming sessions of karaoke at home or in the car. But there came a time when playing an instrument was the missing void in my love for music. But still there was nothing to kickstart it. But 'thanks' to the timing of an unfortunate event in early 2008 and Marié Digby posting videos on YouTube, things really got started. It has been quite a journey since knowing Marié, I have connected with her songs and life in a way that it has elevated my love for music. Marié's music has helped me through so many ups and downs in life and I'm pretty grateful for that.

Better late than never, I picked up playing the guitar at 18 and it was because of Marié's music and inspiring story. Her acoustic version of songs just absolutely blew me away. I instantly fell in love with her music and story. When you actually write a song based on a true story, that message gets transmitted in a very very special way. It's not very often you get to see people like Marié or Taylor Swift, putting their life stories into their songs and delivering that message in the most unbelievable way. I don't know how, but at that point of time, I had the feeling and every reason of wanting to learn the instrument.I had so much inspiration in me and most importantly I had plenty of time. It was nothing short of perfect. That period in time will always be a very important point in my life and I am very thrilled to have Marié be part of it. I also got to watch Marié for the first time in her only appearance in Malaysia to date. One moment I am really into her music, the next month I got to watch her live, a moment to saviour.

When someone has the passion for something or anything, magic actually happens. How many famous dropouts made it absolutely big in this world? Marié dropped out of college to pursue a career in music and it has worked out pretty fine so far. Although a recent interview I have read HERE shows that Marié is still finding it hard to make her next big breakthrough, her passion, determination and love for music is admirable nevertheless. I have understood her life as a musician through each of her songs and I actually feel her story in every song, it's another example of how incredible music can be.

I love her music, got all her albums, play her songs all the time,what else was left to do...To meet her of course! It's been quite a year for me, my long wait for Taylor Swift finally ended, I still find it hard to believe it. So, Marié was going to play a show in Singapore, the moment I knew it, there was nothing left to contemplate. I have waited for quite awhile to finally watch a full show of her performance. And how many times in my life will I get to watch her live in a concert hall? The analytical brain of mine matched all the factors together and made a conclusion that it was ridiculous not to go, and it was damn right.

Some four and a half years since she started as my music inspiration, the time finally came for me to meet her. She played a wonderful show, despite a bit of an 'old' playlist, it was an experience that I could only imagine previously. She was absolutely glowing, looked stunning in a beautiful dress while she poured her heart out on some of her best hits. She started off with My Great Mistake, one of my favourites, continued with many songs from Unfold, then a few from her new album Your Love and her two fan favourite covers, Umbrella and Sweet Dreams by Beyonce. She told a lot of her stories in between and really communicated with the audience. It was like a revision for me how she ended up writing those songs. I was practically living in disbelief (in the best way) the whole time, I usually sing along with my computer and YouTube, now I was singing along live. It was an amazing feeling for me, a dream come true is not an overstatement. At the end, I finally got to meet her after her performance. I had my CD signed and had a conversation with her! I've 'known' her for such a long time and the moment finally came. She was nothing different from what I know of her, except she was right there in front of me! I could really see she is very grateful to everyone who has supported her all this while. Another wonderful chapter added to my year. 

Keep it there Marié, you've got our support. Thanks for all the inspiration.

I don't need my senses to know where you are, even in the distance, you're never far 

~deyao~

Here's her Breathing Underwater movie she made 2 years back which describes her album and a period back in 2008/2009.

Transfer Window Wrap Up

A fantastic summer of action in the transfer window coupled with all the action from Euro 2012, it has been a very busy "off-season" for football fans. The transfer window has officially closed for most leagues. After an agonising transfer window for Gooners in 2011, we had hoped the worst was over and we would have learnt some lessons from that. Unfortunately, things haven't been much different, we still ended up with a transfer surplus and AGAIN lost two big names from our team. What we feared many seasons ago have become a reality, we ARE a "selling" club.

When we sold Patrick Vieira, aged 29, to Juventus in 2005, everyone praised Arsenal, knowing how to cash in on a player past his prime. It happened again in 2007 when we sold Thierry Henry, past his best, still making a handsome profit of 6 million after 8 years. At that point of time, the youth proposition was still pretty strong, we were building our team for the future, 4-5 years from then, there was promise we would have been world beaters with likes of Cesc Fabregas and Van Persie spearheading the team. It is the actual 4-5 years now, that's certainly NOT the case. Since the cashing in on Kolo Toure and Emmanuel Adebayor in 2008, the exodus has worsened and the team is going nowhere.

It has been the same old story this summer, with Van Persie on his last year of his contract, we apparently had "no choice" but to sell him. We could have lost Theo Walcott as well, and he has still yet to sign a new contract as of now. Confirming a disastrous transfer window was the exit of Alex Song, a key pillar in the Arsenal team, when he just started to play the best football in his career. It's really been appalling in terms of players leaving this club. If money was so important to this club, why hasn't the club raised much from the sale of some out-of-favour and under-performing players?

Apart from selling Vela and Almunia permanently, we have raised NOTHING. If we had sold Bendtner (5m), Denilson (3m), Squillaci (2m), Chu Young (3m), Djourou (3m) and Arshavin (5m), we would have raised an additional 24 million pounds! (Vela:3m). With the available kitty of 40 million at the start of the season and assuming we did NOT run a transfer surplus, we would have 64 million available to spend and just imagine some top players we could have brought it. Obviously we didn't do that and we did not strengthen the squad further. 1 year on, there is still no sign of a replacement for Samir Nasri. This club is really not managed by the best people there can be. If Arsenal are a club only keen on making a profit, they have STILL NOT optimised the clubs funds and transfer policy, leaving the club to struggle for a top four position all over again.

Despite all the departures over the years, it's really unbelievable how we are still known as a top club. Imagine Arsenal being seeded in the Champions League draw, notwithstanding the fact we have never won the competition, went through qualifiers 3 times and only reached the semi finals ONCE in 15 years. It's a record we have tried to defend over the years and it has got to the stage where we have to concede we have failed to live up to expectations. People can say Arsenal are unlucky not to win. But when we compare ourselves to other teams over Wenger's tenure, Liverpool has got to the final twice, won once, Chelsea has been in the final twice, won once and of course Man Utd, reached the final 4 times, converting twice. If you were to add up all the semi finals they have been in, Arsenal's record is woeful at best.

Looking forward, we've signed three quality players this close season with hopes of transforming the club's fortunes. Podolski is a certainly a good player that will score goals with his brilliant left foot. Cazorla plays for the national team, so he's got to be of a certain standard. Giroud is the French league's top scorer and has the physique to adapt to the physicality of English football, he is a key man to deliver the goals this season. With Oxalde-Chamberlain , Walcott and Gervinho, there's still hope we do have enough firepower in our attacking play.

The difficult thing to accept would be we no longer attract the best talents in the world and we have to settle for the next tier of players. We used to think about building our own best talents, it's pretty clear that project has been a massive failure. NONE of our established players come from our youth system today (established players are a rarity in Arsenal anyway).The likes of Vela, Merida, Freeman, Emmanuel-Thomas, Nordtveit etc have all been future talk and none of them made it anywhere close to the first team, a clear indication the youth policy hasn't delivered. On the other side of the coin, try looking at successful clubs and whether they have any success with youth. With the exception of the golden boys of Man Utd (Scholes, Giggs, Neville and Beckham) and Barca (Xavi and Inniesta), the youth system success rate is very low. You look at Invicibles in 2004, I don't remember anyone coming from the youth system. Similar to what I mentioned in my previous post, success in the transfer market is key to real success in football today. Chelsea, Man Utd and now Man City have been good examples of that. Although they have occasionally stuffed up on some transfers, they have still been tops on absolute terms of good signings. While Arsenal are still haggling over a couple of million, bigger clubs (I say this with reluctance) are all dealing on a much larger scale.

Competitor Analysis
Chelsea have been most successful in terms of signings this summer with Eden Hazard and Oscar being their high profile captures. The European champions are all in to defend their crown and challenge for the league this season, which they finished a disappointing 5th last season. They have sold Raul Meireles and Michael Essien which is quite a statement of how strong they are.

Verdict: A very strong transfer window
Wildcard signing: Thorgan Hazard
Player to watch: Eden Hazard

Man Utd had the whole world of strikers to buy and they chose Arsenal's Robin van Persie. Some argue it is a gamble on a 29 year-old for such a price but RVP's record speaks volumes, the former Arsenal captain had a splendid season and is one of the best in the game. He has already started to pay off as of this writing but the big question mark still lies whether RVP can gel upfront with Rooney. If they can, it may be a very deadly partnership. Having said that, there are few partnerships upfront that are actually successful in the past. Kagawa should be a good signing for the Red Devils, he looks like a very interesting player, I reckon he would do better than Park.

Verdict: A bold move by SAF for RVP.
Wildcard signing: Angelo Henriquez
Player to Watch: Robin van Persie and Tom Cleverly.

Man City apparently had a very frustrating summer, according to manager Roberto Mancini. Reports suggest he missed out on Javi Martinez and RVP as the club was not supportive of his targets. However, it hasn't been a quiet summer for the Citizens, with the signing of Javi Garcia, Jack Rodwell and Maicon. Like Chelsea, they still could "afford" to lose Adebayor, De Jong and Adam Johnson. A surprise for me would be Tevez staying with all speculation of his career since the madness last season (Well only a few clubs could afford his wages). They pretty much still have their world class players who won them the title and are clear favourites to defend their title.

Verdict: Already have a fantastic squad of players, additions are not significant.
Wildcard signing: Jack Rodwell
Player to Watch: Javi Garcia

I have always looked forward to transfer windows for some salvation for Arsenal but Ivan and the rest seem to think very differently, including this one. It's nothing but pure frustration looking at this team having key pieces taken out season after season. Another thing that really troubles me is the quality of players we have, they are just not that good. It doesn't take a genius to know whether a team are title contenders. As much as I hope miracles can happen for this team, I don't think we have done enough to deserve one, please prove me wrong.

~deyao~

Arsenal Season Review: Good, OK, Ugly

First of all, what a way the season concluded. It was a battle right to the end. The champions, European football places and the relegation battle were all decided on the very last day at the same time. Congratulations to Man City on their first title in 44 years, rounding off a spectacular season of football. They won the league at the death (last day) and in the dying minutes of that match . It was nothing short of thrilling. Man City won the race of being the best of the inconsistent lot. They had their poor periods this season where at times the title seemed lost. Right until the 90th minute they were dreading of losing the title, but persistence and luck got them through at the end. Football fans were winners at the end of the day with another amazing season of football.

Arsenal again scrapped their way through to secure third spot in a season that started out so poorly, improved significantly and dipped right at the end, which luckily didn't cost us the all important third place. It really eased worries about qualification and living in fear whether Chelsea will grab fourth spot by winning the competition. Chelsea indeed won the Champions League and 'overruled' Spurs for Champions League football next season. Overall, Arsenal's season was another failure. The two big stars we lost were key to our problems and our replacements were not winning quality. On the positive side, we outperformed a lot of expectations that we might not be getting Champions League football and at the beginning of the season even a  few cheeky remarks of us facing relegation.

My analysis today would be a bit different. I have opted to divide Arsenal's season into three categories; Good, OK and Ugly. For clarity's sake.
Good: The positives
OK: The things we did as expected
Ugly: The things we did very poorly

GOOD
It was an improvement in league position (4th last year) where we do no need to go through the nerve-wrecking qualifying matches with so much at stake, reportedly some 45 million pounds. Last year's match against Udinese was something we do not want to go through again. Szczesny's save from Di Natale from the spot proved invaluable and it single-handedly shaped our European football season. Our income from the Champions League carries so much weight to our financials (and yet the damn CEO said we could survive without it, which is absolute rubbish) and our ability to continue being competitive while servicing our stadium debt. CL football goes beyond the money, it's the status of the club and it determines a club's market power in attracting the best talents with exception of some very rich clubs.

Some key players had a fantastic season and were drivers of the team. Exceptional ones were Van Persie, Alex Song and Mikel Arteta. Rocking Robin had his best season in an Arsenal shirt and his career with a career high of goals in a season. Our captain was influential and instrumental to our achievements this season. He scored some astonishing goals which which got us the vital three points on many occasions. We achieved third place by 1 point, how big of a difference he has made. He won two prestigious awards, the PFA and Football Writers award, which is pretty rare for a player outside a top-two club. He also will be awarded the golden boot for being the top scorer in the league. Alex Song has become a true leader in the team, he plays the one of the most important roles in the team, fighting for possession and protecting the back four. He has played so well in the middle of the park, covers for the centre backs when required and provides some amazing passes and assists. Robin's goals against Everton and Liverpool were stunning and both assists came from him. He has now become our prized asset we need to keep for a long time.

Arteta came into the team to replace no other than our now ex-captain Fabregas, which was probably the toughest thing in his career. Fabregas was the heart of the team and our 'transplant' actually worked wonders. It was a very tough call Wenger made but it definitely answered all the doubts and critics. Arteta is not Fabregas and will never be, but he worked his own magic and contributed so positively to our season. It was indeed a fantastic first season for him. A special mention also goes to Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, our biggest signing of the summer. Up to 15 million pounds for an 18 year old, again it was such a difficult judgment call in a dreadful transfer window. His full debut against Manchester United was sensational and he has quickly established himself as a fan favourite. His strength, pace and quality has already started to justify his price tag. It's surely going to be a blockbuster next season for him.

We had some vital and notable wins this season as well. Victories over champions Man City, Liverpool courtesy of  'the' Robin volley, the comeback win against over rival Spurs and the 5-3 thriller at Stamford Bridge. At the end of the day,  each and every one of those results were equally important. Any points dropped would have made things much harder for us.


OK
Considering the last minute dealings in the transfer window, including not having a medical test for Arteta, I thought the outcome was OK. Andre Santos, not a great defender but he did put some good performances and a few goals including one against Chelsea and West Brom on the final day. He does have good control on the ball and puts in some very good crosses but yet I still don't think he's the quality we are looking for. Per Mertesacker for 8 million pounds. He did OK. A very mixed season indeed. He did struggle when he first joined and showed improvement forming a good partnership with Koscielny. I think he can play an important role for us next season. One of the biggest surprises for us, the rejoining of legend Thierry Henry which rolled back years of unforgettable memories. At his age, we knew he wasn't quite the same player but he scored the winner on his re-debut against Leeds and a last min goal against Sunderland. What we expected from Titi? Yes indeed.

The 4-5-1 formation was key to some of our wins this season. But the reliance on Robin as the sole striker did put a lot of strain and burden on our captain. Although the formation carried us through the season but it wasn't a sustainable formation in the long run. I would like to see a more 4-4-2 in the future.

Tomas Rosicky was a surprise this season. I picked up some early signs in the beginning of the season where he showed agility, sharp passing and good possession. He probably played his best season in an Arsenal shirt. He contributed significantly in the 5-3 win over Tottenham and has performed relatively consistently this season. It has taken such a long time for him to find his feet and to overcome injuries and thus I'll give him an OK.

Ugly
Now that we've seen the more positive news, let's have a look why Arsenal's season was another failure.


Despite doing extremely well under such tough circumstances in the transfer window, I do not believe Arsenal needed to resort to those kinds of last minute dealings. We had a full summer to plan our transfer window, having money in the bank as well as no distractions internationally. Already knowing we had just dealt with another run-in meltdown, I really thought the writing was on the wall and we could act much quicker in the transfer window and bought some quality players early on. Instead our biggest dealings were Gervinho and Oxlade-Chamberlain, hardly showing any conviction on our ambitions. Our two big players were always certain to leave, and when they did we had no immediate response. We apparently made bids to sign a few players and failed (Juan Mata and Eden Hazard). It was really terrible dealing, we couldn't put in competitive bids and we were always not looking to blow our 'record' of 16mil, set by Arshavin. The CEO Gazidis who has been involved with transfer dealings has to take blame for this. I am starting to doubt his ability of transferring his expertise from the MLS to Europe.

The market conditions have changed, market power has shifted to the richer teams like Man City, Chelsea, PSG and Anzhi who have attracted some top talents in the business. When Man City won the title, Chelsea lifting the Champions League and Man Utd being trophyless, it's pretty obvious the footballing scene has made a dramatic shift. Money has dictated the game very strongly and Arsenal are big victims because of that. I am proud of how the we have grown our books and teams 'organically', but in today's world that is not going to be good enough anymore. Our trophy record in recent years is a testament to that. We need to spend more if we want to achieve anything. When Man City wins the Champions League (if they do), it will signal Arsenal becoming irrelevant in terms of silverware.

Defensive frailties.We have yet to resolve this longstanding problem since the days of Tony Adams and Sol Campbell. We simply haven't found our solid man with the exception of some good seasons by Kolo Toure. We have conceded many poor and soft goals over the last few seasons and it has cost us on so many occasions. Our defence this season was plagued by injuries and poor performance. We lost all our full backs on some parts of the season and were always hanging on the edge of mediocrity. When things didn't swing our way, we occasionally get 'accidents' like the 8-2 defeat to Man Utd and a 4-0 defeat to Milan. To concede so many goals is a huge fundamental problem the current players cannot fix. Players like Squillaci and Djourou need to make way immediately. We seriously need a John Terry for Chelsea, Rio Ferdinand or Nemanja Vidic for Man Utd or a Vincent Kompany of Man City. We simply do not have rock solid Mr. Reliable. Even our best defender Vermaelen has had some poor performances this season. It's still the same story after all these years, our defensive frailties.

Unacceptable defeats and results. The way we exited the FA Cup to Sunderland was another blunder by the club. Seemingly our only hope for silverware, we played a terrible game and lost it.With luck pulling us to safety right on the last day, however it shouldn't be forgotten what got us into this mess. Football is an unpredictable game but the defeats to Swansea, Fulham and QPR clearly shows we were very inconsistent with our performances. On one hand we have wins over big teams but on the other losing to teams that aren't suppose to beat us.

Under performance of players. Ramsey, Arshavin, Gibbs, Chamakh, Chu Yong and Gervinho were probably planned as the key players for the season. Unfortunately, that plan has gone horribly wrong. They have not been up to standard for various reasons and it has been dead weight for the club. Players like Ramsey, Gervinho and Arshavin who have played regularly this season, have put in some shockingly poor performances. Ramsey has not improved as much as we like and the amount of times he has been caught out for possession has been disappointing. He contribution of goals also has been a big miss. Gervinho's case would be very different, he has put a lot of threat in his attacks but his finishing in the last quarter has been below par. 4 goals all season is awful for a player like him. Arshavin might have played his last season with us. His decline has been quite severe since they days of his 4 goals against Liverpool. I'm really not sure what has affected his performances but he has been a big disappointment.

It's some of the toughest periods being an Arsenal fan. We are still a top team today but the glory days seem to be behind us. The game of football has not changed much, but new football forces have arrived in our game. Arsenal cannot afford to continue with their history of transfer dealings because it will be very damaging to our history books. The football environment has changed and Arsenal need to change the way they 'play' the game or else the drought will continue.

~deyao~

Finally....

Carpre diem, seizing the opportunity. Watching Taylor Swift live since I became a fan of hers a few years back was simply a dream.When the opportunity finally came, I didn't think twice. It was one of those moments in life where you dreamt about something and it happened for real.

I started supporting Taylor from the first album but it took more than the first few impressions to get my attention. Her famous Teardrops on My Guitar was quite a hit on the radio but I didn't really pay much attention to what she was singing, all I heard was the title of the song. I can't remember precisely when I first listened to her debut self-titled album, but that was the defining moment of being her fan. When I listened to that album and considered the age she wrote that album, I knew I was listening to something very special. To write and create a first album at such a high level needed something extraordinary, and it was. The stories in album were mainly about the people who were in her life a few years back but the way she painted the pictures through her songs made those songs a lot more than that. I did a review on Fearless when it came out and I rated it 9.8/10. In hindsight, I was right on the dot. Fearless was the next big step and it propelled her into one of the biggest stars in music today. When Fearless was named Album of the Year, the biggest award in the Grammys, I was over the moon, the world of music saw what I saw, it was amazing. That album started her 2-year Fearless tour.

I've seen some footage of her concerts and read stories on how she sells out her concerts around the world. I have always been so envious of those people who got to watch her and it always remained a dream to watch this incredibly talented artist, who is one of my favourites. 2009 went by, 2010 went by and 2011 went by. I seriously never thought that day would come. When 2012 finally presented the opening I have hoped for such a long time and it was a no-brainer decision. It is one of those fantastic moments in life, and taking into account the extent I went through to make it happen made it remarkable. A big thank you to all of you who help make it happen for me.

Wow..where do I start to describe my experience. It was simply unreal at times. Taylor opened her Australasia tour with Perth, marking her 99th concert on her Speak Now Tour.The opening act of her tour was upcoming band Hot Chelle Rae, also from Nashville. It was such a big bonus as I really liked some of their songs. They didn't disappoint, they were brilliant performers and I am an official fan of them now. After dishing out about 6 songs with so much energy, the moment finally came where Taylor was about to perform.

All the anticipation and dreams were moments away from being real. Sparks Fly started to play and then Taylor appeared all of a sudden from under the stage and sang the opening line "Drop everything now..." and the fireworks lit the entire stage. People were screaming at the top of their lungs and I couldn't believe there was nothing between me and Taylor (Usually the computer screen) and I looked in awe. She looked stunningly beautiful and it was probably the best I've seen of her. Those bangs made her look adorable. Lucky me.The stage was amazing, all the props and design made it looked absolutely fabulous. It had a Broadway theme. After Sparks Fly, she just stood there silently and looked around as she absorbed the atmosphere. People were screaming like mad again. Just as she looked like she was going to talk to the crowd, she took a stroll back, picked up her guitar and played Mine. I have to say she sings perfectly live, which I didn't really expect. I've seen her perform live in some music awards and some of them weren't really good, but her performance was nothing short of pitch perfect and wonderful.

After Speak Now she finally addressed the crowd. She talked about her first time touring in Perth, the beach she visited earlier in the day, the 16000 strong crowd in the venue and how she was about to share her stories with the crowd. She ended by asking "Are you ready?". It drove the crowd insane again and she started her song "The Story Of Us". She sang most of the songs on her Speak Now album.

It was one of the nights of my life. Stellar performance, superb choreography, great band members, great entertainment and outstanding songs by an extraordinary artist.I just couldn't ask for more, except that I had hoped she sang "If This Was A Movie". I'm still living the dream today and it is a wonderful feeling. Taylor, thanks for the fantastic show.

 ♥

                                                              Our Song


I was enchanted to meet you, Taylor.
~deyao~

Risk, Uncertainty and Change

Firstly, I'm happy to resume my writing here with lesser time I have these days. There's concept of chefs in France which states they "cook for themselves", meaning putting up a perfect dish is more important for their satisfaction than their customers. Does it apply to me? Maybe. I have seen some people, who have so much to do in life with so little time, and still being able to dedicate some time to share some of their thoughts and knowledge. I admire these people and I think they have set a good example.

Risk and Uncertainty. These two words appear the most often when the economy is weak or when markets are performing poorly. When things are better, most us ignore these two words. Understanding the significance of these two words can help investors manage risk and limit losses.

Today in the beginning of 2012, we’re approaching 4 years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the catalyst which transformed what it seemed just a US subprime mortgage crisis into a full blown global financial crisis. As I mentioned in one of my earlier posts, we are no longer speaking about problems on a corporate scale like the failures of financial institutions, we are now speaking on a national scale involving governments with unsustainable debt and trillions of dollars. 4 years on, wouldn’t the problem be solved or at least is going to be? The ugly truth, it has worsened.

Globalisation and capitalism opened up countries and people like never before, the world is now more connected than ever. International trade, travelling, technology and cooperation between countries have made the world “smaller”. An email gets sent to anywhere in the world in same amount of time, people know as much of what goes on in another country as their own and people are travelling outside their country seamlessly these days.

Many years ago, people quoted “When the US sneezes, Asia catches a cold”, showing Asia’s dependence on the world’s largest economy. With even closer economic ties today and having US and Europe “falling sick” at the same time, shouldn’t be Asia be on a prolonged illness leave? The ongoing problems in US and Europe today are not ideal, Asia is definitely better off with them dong well. But something has changed dramatically over the years, the emergence of Asia as the new economy. The demand, growth and money in Asian and has propelled Asia forward in the midst of this global financial crisis. Jim Rogers said France dominated the 1800s, UK dominated the 1900s and Asia is going to do the same in the current century and beyond.

All the uncertainty present, is it still a good time for investing? The answer is simple, investing never ends, ever. I’m probably not as bullish as I was a few years back but that doesn’t mean investing stops even for a day. For people like Warren Buffett, a down market just means buying more. For people like Robert Kiyosaki, it doesn't matter as long as there is cash flow.For investors and potential investors, what is the next step to take now? Just a brief recap before that.

Another year of extreme volatility hit the markets over the last year, especially during August/September where the EU was struggling to come up with a plan with many countries needing a bailout. Debt ratings were slashed and yields were hitting record highs. And if that wasn’t enough, US lost their coveted AAA rating. You don’t even have to go very far back, that was good investment opportunity then, the panic caused excessive selling and prices took a huge dive. If you would have bought some then, you’d probably be looking at a return of at least 20%, not bad for a 4-month return. Periods as such have repeated on numerous occasions and it really presents good buying opportunities. You don’t have to be an expert to know it will continue to happen again in the future.

One of the greatest strategies ever was popularized by Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham. The buy and hold strategy has worked tremendously well for Buffett because holding stocks for a long period allows the market to appreciate the value Buffett identifies. What if the market tanks? Buffett seldom sells, and when he sells, it is not because he thinks the market is going to tank. Buffett only sells when a stock no longer fulfills his strict selection criteria like his famous 'margin of safety' and comparative advantage. And when the market really tanked like it did in 2008, Buffett bought even more. Berkshire might not give the best returns in the market today, but the lessons are relevant and this approach has been successfully carried out for more than 60 years (Buffett’s career).A lot of people think Buffett has lost it. Read THIS. Technology stocks outperformed Buffett in the decade ended 2000, but who had the last laugh? Buffett called for a 'buy' even before the financial crisis bottomed out, was he right, you bet he was.

Dealing with the current economic climate is very challenging, periods of high volatility can even shake the seasoned investor. Hence, managing portfolio risk is very important. In simple terms, you don’t want to be caught out by unexpected events. Regardless whether the market is going much higher or is heading to another recession, you must be prepared for it.And yes it means you have to always be ready to respond the changes.

One of the most important ways is to view your portfolio as a whole, rather than focusing on each item. Your portfolio works as one and thus it is very important to adjust asset allocations and diversify it to suit your risk. This might take a few books to explain so it’s really up to you to enhance your understanding of this. A typical finance graduate might have learned this, but would have probably underestimated the importance of asset allocation and diversification. I have to be honest I never quite paid attention in class and now comes the time I am catching up on it as well. The few important words to take note; systematic risk, idiosyncratic risk, correlations and diversification.

Following the changes in the world economy, financial markets, political scene etc is quite a handful to do. Constantly learning and adapting on the go is pretty tough but there’s very little excuse because these are the inputs you need to improve yourself to make decisions. Investing is a skill, much like a game of tennis or golf. It’s the hours you put in, the effort you make and of course the motivation to succeed that takes you further. The way Nadal, Federer or Djokovic hits the tennis ball solidly with the highest level of precision and accuracy, didn’t just take a year or two to accomplish. Malcolm Gladwell wrote you can be an expert in anything if you put in 10,000 hours. If you’re still young, that might seem possible to achieve a lot more in life. If you’re not-so young, you’ll value your time even more.

There’s not many things in life as important as managing your finances. Like a garden or a pet, the extra care makes a difference. The world is moving really quickly these days, last week’s news is old news already. Like I wrote in my earlier posts, the rules of the game has changed whether you like or not. My boss told the division recently, change or be forced to change, and it’s not pleasant when you’re forced to change. It really sums up the world we live in today, it's changing very rapidly and you don't want to be left behind. Thanks for reading.

If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less - Eric Shinseki

 ~deyao~