New signings and arrivals

It's less than 2 weeks away from the opening of the new season and a month until the transfer window shuts. I've always done a few previews before the season starts and this will be one of the parts of the season preview. It will be mainly based on Arsenal except the final one which I will analyse the contenders for the season.

In short so far....Arsenal has been a disappointment in the transfer market. Manchester United has flexed their muscles early on and done all the work at the start. They look really settled and there's still a small chance they may nick a possible transfer of a midfielder, namely Wesley Sneijder.

We were promised a busy summer transfer window and so far it has completely fooled everyone. Regardless of ANY big surprises Arsene Wenger or Gazidis tries to pull out in the coming weeks, it can hardly compensate the fact that any new arrival should be given the maximum time to integrate with the team in pre-season. If a potential signing is not from England, there's even more reason to have done it earlier.Based on the two arrivals, business is far from being done.

There are more speculation of players leaving than players coming in this close season. We've got Clichy and Denilson leaving the club and very certain departures of Bendtner, Almunia and Eboue. Losing Clichy is a big blow regardless how to look at it, 25 year old for $7m, how on earth did this happen.

On the arrival front, we've got new signings in Gervinho and Jenkinson. Again, it hardly shows any conviction for a title push.Gervinho was barely targeted by any of our rivals and Jenkinson came for $1m. That takes net spending so far to 11m + 1m - 7m = $5m. Man Utd has already spent $55 million, a staggering 11 times more.

We need a defender, we need a defender, we need a defender. Our centre back positions were hugely vulnerable last season,not to mention for the past few years and it has cost us success for years. Only Vermaelen is a decent quality centre back we can depend on and I would have expected business to already be done sometime after July 1. But No, we missed out on Phil Jones, somehow were not interested in Roger Johnson, made no bid for Christopher Samba, put in a half hearted bid for Gary Cahill,made no contact for Scott Dann and put in a big lower than last season bid for Phil Jagielka. Can we take things a lot more seriously Mr. Wenger? That defence has been a calamity and disaster for awhile now, we've conceded so many late goals and lost so many points for that.It makes me really angry the more I think about it. Squillaci, Koscielny and Djourou being in the first eleven is not going to win us anything.

And we go to the biggest stories of the summer, the possible departures of Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri. Cesc obviously has the desire to leave because he loves where he came from but somehow decided to leave there many years ago. This protracted saga is not doing anybody good and I finally give in, if Barcelona meets out valuation then we should let him go. But there's still every reason to buy a new player to show some ambition, not wait until we sell Cesc and clubs taking the advantage of us having a warchest and inflating prices of our targets. We love you Cesc but your constant desire is negatively affecting the morale of the club, we wish you all the best if your potential employers do come through with the money.

The next issue is really embarrassing. Our player of the season only has one year left to run on his contract (Nasri). How the fudge did everyone in the club not lift a finger and tie him down earlier. His good form was in the first half of the season and didn't anything occur like offering him a new contract? This puts the club in an absolute dilemma, selling him throws the club into more uncertainty or the option of losing him for free next season sounds absurd financially. The club is willing to lose $23million pounds just to show ambition. Why waste that kind money? Buy someone now and let him go if he doesn't want to sign. I really thought it was a smokescreen like Wayne Rooney where the saga ran its course and surprise,surprise he signs a new contract a few days later. Nasri's case definitely isn't the same, the issue of him leaving has been here for awhile and that matter hasn't resolved in a comfortable time period. There's surely something happening in the background and it doesn't look good.

On the arrivals front, apart from the two new signings, we've got some players promoted to the first team and some coming back from going on loan.

1) Carlos Vela
All Arsenal fans can remember of him is his commendable record in the Carling Cup where he has scored some wonderful goals. His lack of contribution in other competitions has put a question mark over his future. I was actually quite excited when he signed some 6 YEARS ago, but like many huge 'potentials', Vela certainly hasn't proven it. It's most likely his last chance to shine and I hope he does.

2) Armand Traore
When he first made an appearance in the first ever Emirates Cup back in 2007, I was extremely happy with what I saw. He was only 16 but he played like he was 20. He had the pace and was very calm with the ball. Few years on, he hasn't yet broke into the first team. His key strengths are his attacking runs and crosses but there are still doubts he has the defensive qualities required for a full back. Arsene Wenger not making an acquisition for a left back clearly signals the revival of Traore as he will be the main understudy to Gibbs. Lots of unfulfilled potential again and I really hope for the best. Not many players going out on loan ever makes a comeback, he is one of the few.

3) Emmanuel Frimpong
Emmanuel was clearly earmarked to be in the first team last season, only to suffer a season ending injury which was a huge blow. He is probably a straight replacement for Denilson in the middle of the park. Still young without much experience, I would prefer not seeing him making more than 20 starts.

4) Henri Lansbury
His goal against Spurs in the Carling Cup last season will have a part in every Gooner's mind. He has been named many times on the bench for the first team but mainly for the Carling Cup but rarely for the League. He does look like he has a good future ahead of him. Again, the lack of experience is going to make him not such a valuable asset to the team. Another player coming back from going out on loan. He was close to being sold just a few weeks ago but Arsene decided against it in the last minute. Another player with a final lifeline..

5) Craig Eastmond
Yes, he went out on loan too. I did remember him making his debut in the centre of midfield and Arsene told the press he liked Eastmond because he was intelligent. He does not appeal on the physical side of things and this worries me a lot because when we get dominated in the middle of the park, we're always doomed. I'm less optimistic on Craig, with Song, Frimpong, Ramsey and Diaby already occupying those places. It may not be a surprise if he does get sent out on loan.

6) Ryo Miyaichi
Sorry, it's getting a bit repetitive at this point about players coming back from being on loan. I've seen Ryo make appearances in the Asia tour and Germany. And also judging by Feyenoord's comments about him, he seems like an exciting prospect. I hope he gets the work permit to play though.

At the moment, the current squad may not finish in the top four. Champion's League football has always kept Arsenal at a minimum acceptable standard of being a respected top European team and our earnings are highly weighted on this lucrative competition. There has been rumours on potential arrivals. At the moment, the more probable concrete ones are Juan Mata from Valencia, Phil Jagielka from Everton and Costa Rican Joel Campbell. If we do get these three players, it probably still won't win us anything but a top four spot might seem more likely. I can't believe the club is considered to be out of contention for the league, it's just very disappointing.

The other rumours are Gary Cahill, Karim Benzema, Eden Hazard and a few others. They are quality players but I don't think it will happen to be honest.

If the three players are to join the club with Cesc and Nasri staying,it just might be a surprise to everyone. There's still time to do some business in the transfer window and I really hope lots of good news is on the way.

The next post should be about the contenders for the League and I'll probably include a wrap up at the close of the transfer window. There's so many big moves that have already taken place and it will be interesting to see how the next few weeks unfolds.

~deyao~

Supermodel Miranda Kerr

I've probably have not written about Miranda Kerr before, but after learning so much about her in the last few years I've been really inspired by her life and have become a big fan of her.

Miranda Kerr was born in a small in town in Gunnedah, New South Wales, Australia. Although she shot to fame at age of 14 by winning a competition and appearing on the cover of Dolly, she has faced many rejections along the way before becoming Australia's most successful model. She's the first Australian to be part of the exclusive group of Victoria's Secret Angels and is the face of Australian upmarket retailer David Jones. In recent years, she married movie star Orlando Bloom, created her own line of products Kora Organics, released her first book Treasure Yourself and of course she's a mum to her recently newborn Flynn.

I've been a fan of Miranda for a few years now and I've become a close follower these days. Apart from being a great model, she's a huge inspiration to so many people and her perspective to life admirable. Her determination, personality and journey to success has become really good example to many people, including myself.

Below is video of her recent interview.

Treasure Yourself

~deyao~

The Self-Sustaining Model

When Arsenal CEO Ivan Gazidis spoke to the AST a few weeks ago, he mentioned about Arsenal's self-sustaining model many times. In simple terms, he was describing the corporate side of things, which is to run and grow the business on its own. Football is not just about winning trophies, it's also about making money so that the success could be sustained in the long term. You can win the league but if the club is insolvent, the likelihood is the club's future will be in doubt, players will be sold, points will be deducted and the club could go down for a long time (Leeds is a good example and luckily their fortunes have changed in the last few years).

A self-sustaining model is a business model that relies entirely on the business' operations and retained earnings for growth. In Arsenal's perspective, the business grows by the profit it makes from football which includes TV rights, gate receipts, sponsorships, merchandise and others. This is in comparison to the other extremes like Chelsea and Manchester City, whose businesses are built on the wealth of their owners. They sign very expensive players, pay top wages and expect fast results. Do their business' make a profit? Unlikely. With exception of Man Utd and Real Madrid which have much higher revenues, even top tier clubs like Arsenal do not make anywhere near that much profit to cover those big signings like a 50m Torres or a 32.5m Robinho. But teams like Chelsea are able to service their debts and continue to make extravagant purchases as long as their owners are happy to pump more funds into the business. The high level of spending can't continue in long run but in the next few years the billionaires from the Middle East and Russia still have large buffers in their coffers, which will not stop them from continuing their transfer market frenzy.

Obviously if these owners continue to lose money year after year, they might be fed up and could sell the club, which 'rich' clubs are at risk of. But the owners are mostly quite intelligent people who are aiming to tap the growing revenues of football clubs, thus they are willing to spend these huge 'outlays'. Chelsea and Man City's spending in the transfer market has changed the game entirely. They might not be financially efficient in terms of a "return on investment ratio", but they have transformed into a top footballing clubs in Europe. Money does make things happen, but is this what the football world has become today?

The Cost of Winning

Football is a sport and the aim is to win. Clubs should do all they can to win, but does it mean "all they can"? Real Madrid has spent mind-boggling sums of money to recapture the title of European Champions, but they have not done it. Player after player, manager after manager, payouts after payouts. They should be going bust by now right, they have only won 1 trophy in the last 8 years! But NO, they are the richest football club in the world and today they are still spending huge sums of money. What does this mean? Real doesn't need to win to become rich and famous. But does wealth make a football club great?

To another Spanish club Barcelona. A cabinet full of trophies, sensational players and tremendous quality of football, but stricken with 400m of debt? Considering all the prize money, TV rights and their popularity, they are in truckloads of debt! And they've got no stadium debt as well! A winning club but in poor financial state, is this admirable and ideal?

One of the biggest conflicts Arsenal's supporters have with the board is whether Arsenal should do 'more' to win trophies. Is the aim ENTIRELY to win? The fans seem to think so and I would kill to see Arsenal win a trophy to be honest. Is the benefit of silverware more than offset the cost of obtaining it? If Arsenal spent 50m, will the DIFFERENCE of winning the league compared to being in top 4 be enough to cover that 50m? If winning does not cover that cost, why win (in the context of running a business) ? This is a business issue and so far there's no perfect answer to this. Had Arsenal won trophies over the last few years, Arsenal could say they have the best football with the best business model and everyone can shut it. Unfortunately Arsenal only has a good business model with no results on the pitch. As mentioned, football is a sport and it is about winning, so is Arsenal a complete failure? If judged on silverware, Arsenal are worst than Portsmouth, although they are relegated, they have more silverware than Arsenal in the last 6 years. Is Arsenal worst than Liverpool who has not finished in the top four in the 2 years running but managed to win the Champions League in 2005?


The Balancing Act

It's an absolutely fcking torture to be an Arsenal fan. We've got issues in ownership and we got stadium debt to add to our woes. We are so close every year but we lack the few percent to pull through. Although the change in ownership is not changing the club's financial state, the stadium debt in costing us 20m a year. There's the extra money we could have had for transfers, instead it's used for servicing the debt. How long more will it take? If the sources are correct, it's another 20 years! But in the larger perspective, we've needed a bigger stadium for a long time to capitalise on growth and to compete with other top teams. It can also be said we are unlucky compared to the other clubs which already have larger stadiums. In the short term, the stadium obviously has not 'broke even'. It is still costing the club more than the additional revenues generated. This means our transfer spending is reduced by this. In the long term, probably when revenues grow much higher or at worst when Arsenal pay off the stadium debt, that is when we could fully realise the benefits of the investment. It's a painful wait unfortunately.

Our extremely lower level of 'net spending' in the transfer market has been the most popular causal variable to our lack of success. I have to admit there is truth in this as the team has not replaced the big players it has sold in the last few years. The manager has made some gambles trying to develop youth and buying unknown players, financially it has been great, but in terms of success, it has been a big letdown.

The club's attempt to balance success on and off the pitch has been a failure. We've tried to work around our limited resources (transfer funds) but it hasn't been enough for success. Many would agree Arsenal are doing very well and being very efficient in terms of achieving what they have with so little money, but the measures of success in the world of football is trophies, and Arsenal hasn't got any to show for.

Is it time for Arsenal to start splashing the cash and possibly compromising the club's finances to please the fans and critics? Should Arsenal change the way they measure success towards winning trophies? Of course ideally Arsenal would want to be able to achieve success with their present finances, but time has gone and this plan has failed. Is it time for Arsenal to take a step back in terms of their pride of having a self-sustaining model and deliver trophies even though it is not beneficial financially?

There are a few solutions

1) New investment. Arsenal could get a new owner or the present owner to inject cash in the club to facilitate transfers to buy more experienced players. This would turn the current model on its head but could finally deliver silverware.

2) Be even better at what they do. Arsenal has an extremely tight purse string and they spend very prudently. The solution here is to uncover more and even better talent (like Fabregas) and buy players that has not been noticed. Disadvantage... still sticking to the old policy which is currently not working.

3) Change the manager - Wenger has done extremely big things for the club and it hasn't occurred until more recent times he doesn't quite deliver as well as he used to. His strategies in transfer dealings and style of football has epitomised what the club stood for in the last 15 years. It's clear things are no longer the same as they were used it, is his time finally up?

I would love the discuss the possible transfers this season but I'll leave it here. This post is about the balance of success in terms of a business and footballing capabilites and I can only hope the club can find a solution and balance to this that includes silverware.

On a lighter note, Arsenal supporters should be proud to have a supermodel supporting the club (I was definitely not using a model to coincide with my title).Thanks for reading.

~deyao~