Delayed results

There has a few cases (maybe half) in the past when predictions of mine have gone wrong, but it hasn’t been all bad actually. Recently I recalled predicting the 2008-2009 season to be a very close fight for the top four spots because of the emergence of Aston Villa which has showed strong promise for the past few years, Manchester City with their new wealthy owners and their ability to sign top players and a very un-Arsenal prediction of Spurs getting their breakthrough….plus Liverpool being under threat for their top four position. But the prediction went the opposite direction. Liverpool became Man Utd’s biggest title threat and could even have won it had Rafa not had his shocking rant at Fergie. Spurs and Man City didn’t quite make the grade last term and Aston Villa had a horrible ending to the season, surrendering 4th and 5th spots towards the end despite being in a very strong position in March. And of course, I didn’t predict Man Utd to win the title but at least I kept things open as long as Ronaldo was still in the team.

Would I concede it was luck? Maybe a little. But to my astonishment, those predictions last season are quite on the dot at the moment. The big four plus Villa, Spurs and Man City are only separated by less than 10 points. Even if things turn by quite a bit towards the second half of the season, this season tells a story that the ‘gap’ between the 4th and 5th is completely diminished. I wouldn’t bet against Liverpool making the top four but they will have one hell of task with what they have right now. A slightly out-of-form Gerrard and a not completely fit Torres spells disaster for Liverpool and Aquillani barely making a few appearances is a big problem. The unconvincing defence was one of the least of their problems previously, but it is a one to solve now. Rafa has to save his job in the coming months.

I didn’t realize until yesterday how huge January and February was until I had a look at the fixtures list. In short, in the two months, we play Bolton twice, play Aston Villa, Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool . Oh ya, I forgot to mention a “mini detail”. From 27 January till 10 February, we play Villa, Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool……….wait for it…………..CONSECUTIVELY!!! And we also resume our ‘quest’ in another competition called the Champions League right after going through those explosive ties. The traditional plotting of the run-in towards the last 10 or so games will not be fully applied this season. It is the next two months which will indicate whether we would finally be genuine title contenders. The aim now is to reverse the defeats against Chelsea and Man Utd and once again get another over Liverpool and Villa. A lot of football will be played plus the reopening of the transfer window in the next 24 hours. We should be getting a striker as Van Persie will not be playing any part in this campaign. It will be interesting to see whether we will get a goal-poacher to finish moves of endless creativity from the midfield.

Last time out, I wrote about Arsenal having the great opportunity this season and was immediately was dealt a huge blow with defeats to Sunderland and Chelsea. But it has been a good December and Arsenal are in the exact same position I have been hoping for, in striking distance. I have so much faith and hope over my lifetime as a fan of this club and I pray hard for this very special team to eventually succeed. There is no better time to do it and even the optimistic Arsenal staff has penciled the date for a possible meeting at the Bernabeau in May. Let the 2nd half of the season begin!

Happy New Year everyone!!!

There will an ANTM post which is on the verge of completion and another investing topic which has another dimension to it.

~deyao~

The Petite Cycle

When was the last time I blogged about Top Model? That was a really long time ago. I use to blog a lot about the shows I watched. But sadly, Top Model went downhill, Prison Break ended, Grey's Anatomy wasn't great. After one of models I quite dislike won, I decided it was time to take a break from the show. I was disappointed with the lack of excitement the show used to have and I no longer had the urge to find out what was going to happen next. But I picked it up again this year and I had to catch up on the previous cycle I missed. Writing about it after such a long time shows signs the show is just above par again. In such a short time, America's Next Top Model has created its 13th winner. It's a terrific achievement for Tyra Banks and the producers. Here's the winner of the 12th cycle Teyona with her winner's shoot!
The 12th cycle proved to be quite good, with at least 3 of the others very capable of winning. However, this was one cycle which had no one being consistent all the way, even Teyona screwed up her commercial. The very nervous Allison was really very close to winning it as well. Her progress was unbelievable and she almost made it, almost. Her walk improved tremendously and she was a big contender. At the end of the day, it was't her eyes who pulled it off, it was her desire to win that did it. Her few bloopers in the competition made me laugh quite a few times. She wore an attire twice to judging, said another photographer was the best she has worked with in front of Nigel and told Tyra she was pretty right after she shot her. It was so hilarious when she gives the "oops" look. Anyway, here's her shot for the Covergirl commerical.
The shot below was inspired by Brazillian Carmen Miranda.
Till now I haven't got to the topic of this post yet. Cycle 13 is the first cycle in Top Model history which only allows participants with the height of 5'7 and below. Petite is the reference given to models of that height. Previously, only models with a certain height are only chosen unless they prove to be significant exceptions. This cycle is so different, it opened the doors to people who thought they could never make it because of their height. And yes, anyone taller than 5'7 was not allowed in the competition. This cycle was a real breakthrough, it gave hope to people who thought height was an absolute must. Just like a black model, who some perceive to be inferior, has to work extra hard to keep up with the "natural" models. This cycle emphasised on trying to elongate the height of the models through posing skills like pointing their toes and positioning themselves to deceive the camera. It really works, some poses make you look extra tall in front of the camera. And if you go wrong, you might look exactly your height. No winner is going to be announced in this post, just the few good ones. I actually do have a bit of a memory loss this cycle because I had about 1 month pause in between.

So firstly, Brittany

At the start of the competition she was my favourite and she fared pretty well. The picture on the right was one of her best (can't remember the theme). The one on the left, was not quite there as you can see she doesn't look taller than she is (Look at Nicole's shoot below). She is really pretty in person but her mediocre personality didn't spell superior to the judges . She didn't win this cycle but her early showings caught my attention.


I like this picture because of the very strong face.

Next, we have Laura!!
She is arguably one of most likeable contestants of all time. She is right up there with Kahlen of cycle 4 and cycle 7 winner Caridee. In terms of personality and humour, she really is one big winner. Coming from a country background, her job back home is castrating bull testicles!! But she is no where near old fashion and her bubbly personality makes just makes people love her . She has a few funny moments like wearing her grandma's sewn dresses. Some of them are really funny. Even the judges, knowing some was really not appropriate for judging, made it a laughing matter at the end. Battling dyslexia at the same time, could she really do commercials? Well, you should check it out.
Here are some of her pictures.

I really can't remember the theme of this picture.

The theme of this one was sort of martial arts. Each contestant gets to choose their weapon of choice. This photo is really good. The way she lengthens herself using the weapons is quite genius.

I only have two words on my mind when I see this photo. "SPORTS ILLUSTRATED". I wouldn't be surprise to her in one of the spreads in the future. This shot was just brilliant.

Then we have Nicole.


In terms of taking wonderful pictures, this girl delivers picture after picture of stunning quality. Personality wise, not impressive, but you wouldn't find a reason not to like her. She struggles quite a bit on the runway though. But overall, could she pull it off ?
A few of great pictures below.





Now this one makes her look tall. The lengthening factor this cycle mentions so much about. How does she look ? Six feet?
And also the weapon shoot.


Next up is Jennifer.


I never really fancied Asians after the disastrous Gina appeared in cycle 6. But Sheena made quite an impact in cycle 11 although she didn't exactly get to the top 3. Her personality took her pretty far. At auditions I was thinking...another Asian....I get things wrong on many occassions on Top Model and this one was one of them. Jennifer was a shining star in this cycle, she took great pictures and her personality made her likeable. She didn't have that strong character and confidence of Sheena that sometimes annoys people. Jennifer also battled with her left eye muscle which had undergone surgery before. But she learned how to cope and not make that weakness show on pictures. She did really well at the end.

Next up we have Rae,

The first time I saw Rae, I saw a lot of drive in her during the audition. A young mother at 21, he gave the impression of being a serious contender. Her stunning features gave her a real edge especially in the beginning. She did work really hard in every photoshoot and delivered some gorgeous pictures like the one below. But towards the 2nd half, her inability to stand out from being good to very good made it hard for her to stay. Even her bubbly personality was just not enough.



And lastly, we have Erin

The youngest in the competition at 18 but her competitiveness is something to watch out for. In one of the challenges, she was so aggressive until some of the other girls were upset with her. She's sometimes criticised for not being mature enough for the competition. But she doesn't let anything get in her way and she certainly shows a lot of it in the competition. Her very strong look is something the judges love and true enough in judging, it was too hard to eliminate her. Two pictures of her below.





It has been quite a comeback for ANTM. The signs of improvement has surely got me back on the show's side. Although there are rumours Tyra has lost touch with ANTM and is focusing a lot more on her talk show. I would say she is still doing enough to keep the show alive, the petite theme was certainly a great idea. Also former contestants of Top Model being able to breakthrough the modelling industry is surely great encouragement for Tyra to continously develop models from her show. And the fact that Tyra became world known for her modelling over the last 20 years, I don't think her passion will die off anytime soon. So for now, it will be till Cycle 14 in the usual March.

~deyao~

Cashflow

Cash, which is essentially money, is a very powerful tool. With cash, you have the highest degree of liquidity and you have the power to do many things. How powerful your money is depends on how well you are able to grow it. If you have lots of cash, most of the time it is a good sign, but keeping too much cash may not be smart to do. We all know the importance of cashflow, but when it comes to investments, some people tend to overlook it. Today, I am not going to emphasise a company's statement of cash flows, but YOURS!

If a company is cash-rich, will you put money into it? Not necessary. If a company has many contracts and projects, would you? Most likely. Cash/ Money is as earlier mentioned, powerful if you can grow it. If you place your money in the bank today, you might get a 3-4% interest payment a year. Your cash is growing, but the fact is, it is quite little and everyone can do it.

I mention Rich Dad very frequently because I have learned a lot from his books. One of is his most valuable topics is defining an asset which I believe in. If you have read his books, he always mentions that assets are things that put money in your pocket and liabilities are the opposite. And the famous example is classifying your house as a liability. Your house or property is placed into the asset column of your balance sheet according to accounting principles. But is your house really an asset? People get very irritated when being told their house is a liability because they put so much effort into buying, building, furnishing and everything. And their biggest argument is, "I bought my house 10 years ago at $200,000 and now it is worth $400,000". That argument is sort of valid, because you can sell it for more which puts money in your pocket. And that is if you sell it!

Appreciation in real estate prices is very important when we buy one. But the fact that we can sell it for more might not be such a good criteria for deciding whether it is a good investment because we got no place to stay if we sell our house!!! If you have used the Net Present Value (NPV) calculation before, I think you will realise why. Assuming perpetuity, if you draw the timeline from time 0 to probably 60 years of your house. So at time 0, you bought the house, negative $200,000 plus some renovations another negative $50,000. For time 1 onwards, you got maintenance, upkeeping, council rates and interest on loan. Guess what, the entire timeline is NEGATIVE ALL THE WAY!! The NPV is a huge negative.Is that a big liability or what?? Indeed, the negative cashflows from time 0 to infinity tells you the house you live in is not an asset, but the opposite. Just like a car as well, a huge liability till the end, but as we need those two to survive we got no choice. If the investment does not generate positive cashflows, it probably isn't an investment or asset.

I know very little about real estate, but I will always remember the rule of positive cash flows. I know it might seem hard, but I've seen it happen on many cases, When investing in real estate, make sure you are generating positive cash flows from the investment. It means your rent income must at least be able to cover the expenses and repayments. It is tough to do if the perccentage of the loan of the real estate is high. That is why, you need to at least try to put a larger downpayment to ensure your cash flows are positive subsequently. And this is when real estate becomes an asset/investment. Rich Dad asked Robert in one of his books. "If all your real estate generates a positive cash flow, how many can you own?". The answer was simple "As many as I want to".

The NPV rule is quite a simple rule to use and it is very evident it is very accurate. It uses cash flow to determine whether an investment is good. The dividend-discount model is one of the few used to place a value on stocks, estimating future cash flows. As for speculators who trade frequently to make capital gains, it is also applicable. If you sell your investment for a higher price than you paid for, its NPV is most likely to be positive (time value factor). Rich Dad's asset definition also fits. If you sell a stock for a gain (assuming no dividends), you put money into your pocket and that makes it an asset. It is a bit ambigious in this case because you only classify the stock as an asset after you sell it.

This may be my last post in awhile because my holiday is just about to end. I think work will take most of my time. This post is really easy to understand for many, but its power of application is the powerful part. I hope this post and my previous few builds the foundations to investing successfully in the future. Thanks for reading :)

~deyao~